多尺度模式对海河流域地区副高系统影响性降水预报的性能评估  

Evaluation of multi-scale model forecasts for subtropical high edge-type precipitation in the Haihe River Basin

作　　者：陈宏 张庆 孙密娜[2] 李宗飞[3] 韩婷婷 侯敏 CHEN Hong;ZHANG Qing;SUN Mina;LI Zongfei;HAN Tingting;HOU Min(Tianjin Weather Modification office,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Meteorological Observatory,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Meteorological Information Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Binhai New Area Meteorological Bureau,Tianjin 300457,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市人工影响天气办公室,天津300074 [2]天津市气象台,天津300074 [3]天津市气象信息中心,天津300074 [4]天津市滨海新区气象局,天津300457

出　　处：《气象科学》2024年第4期783-792,共10页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41575049);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z034,CXFZ2022J017);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-009);天津市气象局资助项目(202203ybxm02)。

摘　　要：基于ECMWF(EC)、GRAPES-GFS(CMA-GFS)、GRAPES-3 km(CMA-3 km)、GRAPES-SH9(CMA-SH9)、GRAPES-BJ(CMA-BJ)、国家指导预报(NWGD)共6种主客观降水预报资料,自动站逐小时降水资料及国家气象信息中心提供的格点化降水融合产品,采用常规检验评分,并结合MODE(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)和SAL(Structure Amplitude Location)方法对2020年海河流域地区4次副高系统影响性降水过程的预报结果进行精细化检验,对比分析这6种产品对降水的预报性能。结果表明:6种降水预报产品的TS评分在4次过程中表现出随降水量级增大而减小趋势,CMA-SH9、CMA-BJ和EC模式对于小雨预报表现最好,随着降水量级增大,中尺度模式的优势更加凸显。大尺度模式对于暴雨预报属于高空报,而CMA-3 km和CMA-BJ较其他模式更为稳定,其空报率和漏报率较低,在6个模式中位列较靠前。国家指导预报和降水实况的相关系数与其他5个模式相比均最高,且晴雨准确率排名第一,而CMA中尺度模式预报的标准差更小。利用MODE方法和SAL方法进行暴雨空间检验发现,CMA-3 km和EC模式可用于雨带形状预报,而对于结构、强度和位置的预报,可综合参考CMA中尺度模式。Based on six kinds of subjective and objective precipitation forecast data,including ECMWF(EC),GRAPES-GFS(CMA-GFS),GRAPES-3 km(CMA-3 km),GRAPES-SH9(CMA-SH9),GRAPES-BJ(CMA-BJ)and National Guided Forecast(NWGD),hourly precipitation data from automatic stations and gridded precipitation fusion product data provided by the National Meteorological Information Center,by using the conventional inspection and scoring method,MODE(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)method and SAL(Structure Amplitude Location)method,the forecast results of four subtropical high system-influencing precipitations in the Haihe River Basin in 2020 were evaluated to compare and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these six products.Results are as follows:the TS of the six precipitation forecast products showed a decreasing trend with the increase of the precipitation magnitude in the four precipitation processes.For the forecast of light rain,CMA-SH9、CMA-3 km and EC model had a slight advantage,but as the precipitation magnitude increasing,the advantage of the mesoscale model became more prominent.At the same time,the large-scale models were high-altitude for heavy rain forecasting.Compared with other numerical models,the forecasts of CMA-3 km and CMA-BJ werwmore stable due to they both ranked the top three in the rate of empty and false alarms of rainstorms.Compared with the other five models,the correlation coefficient between the NWGD and the actual precipitation was the highest,and the accuracy rate of rain or shine ranked first,while the standard deviation of the CMA mesoscale model forecast was smaller.Using the MODE method and the SAL method to conduct a spatial inspection of heavy rain,it was found that the CMA-3 km and EC models could be used for rainband shape forecast.For the prediction of structure,strength and location,the CMA mesoscale model could be comprehensively referred to.

关 键 词：多模式 空间检验 降水预报 对比分析 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]