基于混合动态贝叶斯多准则决策的配电网韧性评估方法  

Based A hybrid dynamic Bayesian multi-criteria decision making approach for distribution network resilience assessment

作　　者：左一成 王元龙[1] 王晓明 李炜 关巧莉 ZUO Yicheng;WANG Yuanlong;WANG Xiaoming;LI Wei;GUAN Qiaoli(State Grid Suzhou Electric Power Supply Company Suzhou 234000 Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]国网宿州供电公司,安徽宿州234000

出　　处：《自动化与仪器仪表》2024年第9期345-350,共6页Automation & Instrumentation

基　　金：国网安徽省电力有限公司科技项目(5213042 20028)。

摘　　要：随着电力系统的规模不断扩大、设备复杂度逐渐增加,配电网的稳定性和韧性对于能源稳定供应和电网的可靠性来说非常重要。针对配电网的韧性评估问题,提出了一种基于混合动态贝叶斯多准则决策的评估方法。该方法使用一个详细的多层次结构框架,利用基于语言尺度的多准则决策方法,在考虑不同程度的高比例新能源接入情况下,对配电网进行面向增强态势感知的韧性水平估计。为了验证提出的韧性评估方法的有效性,在IEEE的33总线配电网上进行了测试。实验结果表明,相对于传统的评估方法,提出的方法在评估结果准确性和实用性方面取得了明显的优势。此外,在参数调优和鲁棒性分析方面,混合动态贝叶斯多准则决策方法也表现出较好的性能。With the increasing scale and equipment complexity of power systems,the stability and resilience of distribution networks are very important for the stable supply of energy and the reliability of power grids.To address the problem of resilience assessment of distribution networks,this paper proposes an assessment method based on hybrid dynamic Bayesian multi-criteria decision making.The method uses a detailed multi-level structural framework to estimate the resilience level of the distribution network for enhanced situational awareness using a language-scale based multi-criteria decision making approach,taking into account different levels of high percentage of new energy access.To validate the effectiveness of the resilience assessment method proposed in this paper,tests were conducted on the IEEE 33-bus distribution network.The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper achieves significant advantages in terms of accuracy and practicality of the assessment results compared to traditional assessment methods.In addition,the hybrid dynamic Bayesian multi-criteria decision method also shows better performance in terms of parameter tuning and robustness analysis.

关 键 词：态势感知 配电网 非确定性韧性 混合多准则决策 动态贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：TP29[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]