未来新增城镇人口往哪里去?——一个城镇化动力识别基础上的多情景模拟研究  

Spatial Distribution Paths for Newly-added Urban Population in China by 2035 based on Multi-scenario Simulation of Urbanization Drivers

作　　者：李茜 赵群毅 欧阳慧[3] 王茂军[1] LI Xi;ZHAO Qunyi;OUYANG Hui;WANG Maojun

机构地区：[1]首都师范大学资源环境与旅游学院,北京100048 [2]北京工业大学建筑与城市规划学院,北京100124 [3]中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第9期1-11,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“系统观视角下推进以人为核心的新型城镇化战略突破研究”(22ZDA056)。

摘　　要：面向2035年,如何在持续推进新型城镇化的进程中实现新增城镇人口的空间优化配置,既是学术问题也是实践命题,论文提供了一个城镇化动力识别基础上的多情景模拟研究方案。以我国679个城市为基本单元,从人口、产业、治理维度构建指标体系进行因子分析,识别我国城镇化发展的动力因子及其空间格局,进而构建不同动力交互作用下的城镇化未来演进情景,判断未来“1.5亿人”这一数量级新增城镇人口的空间承载趋势及其路径。研究发现,城镇化空间格局的形成演变由空间集聚驱动、人口增长驱动、服务业驱动、人居环境驱动四种动力因子共同作用,共存在15种未来城镇化演进情景,多情景模拟呈现出大城市“一枝独秀”格局改变、中等城市“稳中有升”、小城市成为重要“一极”的城镇人口空间承载变化趋势。未来可重点围绕都市圈建设、中心城市培育、治理能力提升、产业集聚创新、城乡融合发展等方面通过“五个一批”的实施路径为新增城镇人口提供空间支撑。Looking towards 2035,optimizing the spatial distribution of the newly increased urban population during advancing the process of new urbanization is a academic issue as well as practical challenge.This paper provides a research proposal for a multi-scenario simulation study based on the identification of urbanization drivers.Taking 679 cities in China as the basic units,the study constructs an index system from the perspectives of population,industry,and governance to conduct factor analysis,which identifies the driving factors of urbanization and their spatial patterns in China,constructing future urbanization scenarios influenced by different interplaying drivers to assess the spatial distribution trends and paths for the newly added "150 million" urban people.The study finds that the formation and evolution of the urbanization spatial pattern are jointly driven by four factors:spatial aggregation,population growth,service industry,and residential environment,presenting 15 potential future urbanization scenarios.The multi-scenario simulation suggests the trends in spatial bearing capacity for urban population:as medium-sized cities steadily grows,and small cities play the key role,the one-sided dominance of big cities have changed.The development of metropolitan area,cultivation of central cities,enhancement of governance capabilities,innovation in industrial aggregation,and integrated urban-rural development should be focused to provide spatial support for the newly increased urban population by the “five-batch” pathway.

关 键 词：新增城镇人口 空间承载 城镇化动力 多情景模拟 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]