中国县域人口分布演变趋势及影响因素  

Evolution of County Population Distribution and Influencing Factors in China

作　　者：朱查松[1] 张苏 韩鲁涛 孔卉 ZHU Chasong;ZHANG Su;HAN Lutao;KONG Hui

机构地区：[1]厦门大学建筑与土木工程学院,福建厦门361000 [2]广东省东莞市城建规划设计院,广东东莞523000

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2024年第9期12-20,共9页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52378078)。

摘　　要：区域经济差异导致了区域人口迁移,并影响了区域的均衡发展。以第六、第七次全国人口普查县级数据为基础,分析2010、2020年中国县级单元常住人口、绝对迁移潜力的空间分布及变化,进而应用固定效应模型与多元线性回归模型分析人口分布的影响因素。研究发现:(1)全国区县常住人口在规模和空间上呈两极分化态势。胡焕庸线东南侧人口分布的集聚态势更强烈,西北侧人口分布趋于均匀。城市群人口分布呈现出均衡、极化、流失三种态势。(2)南方重要城市的核心区县人口吸引力是造成人口分布南北差异的主要原因。(3)区域人口迁移受经济要素、自然要素、服务要素、地方要素等多要素影响。经济要素仍影响人口变化但影响力随时间而减弱;自然要素仅对部分区县人口变化产生负影响;服务要素对人口变化产生的正影响呈下降趋势;地方要素对人口变化产生的持续影响与单一年份的影响相反。Regional population migration is caused by regional economic differences,which affects the balanced development of regions.Based on the county-level data of the 6th and 7th National Population Censuses,this paper analyzes the spatial distribution and changes of permanent population and absolute migration potential of county-level units in China in 2010 and 2020,and then uses the fixed-effect model and multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors affecting population distribution.The results show that:(1) The permanent population of districts and counties in China is polarized in terms of scale and space.The agglomeration trend of population distribution on the southeast side of Hu Line is stronger,and the population distribution on the northwest side tends to be uniform.The population distribution of urban agglomerations shows three trends:equilibrium,polarization and loss.(2) The population attractiveness of the core areas and counties of important cities in southern China is the main reason for the difference between the north and the south of the population.(3) Regional population migration is affected by multiple factors,such as economic factors,natural factors,service factors,and local factors.Economic factors still influence demographic change,but they are no longer the only factor,and their influence has diminished over time.Natural factors only had a negative impact on the population change in some districts and counties.The positive impact of service factors on population change showed a downward trend.The persistent impact of local factors on demographic change is inverse to the impact of a single year.

关 键 词：人口迁移 区域均衡发展 地区经济差异 县域 影响要素 

分 类 号：F291[经济管理—国民经济]