滇中城市群工业用地扩张与经济增长互动特征时空格局演化及交互响应关系  

Spatial-temporal evolution and interactive response relationship between industrial land expansion and economic growth in central Yunnan urban agglomeration

作　　者：樊艳翔 贺灿飞[1,2,3] FAN Yanxiang;HE Canfei(College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871;Southwest United Graduate School,Kunming 650092;Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学城市与环境学院,北京100871 [2]西南联合研究生院,昆明650092 [3]北京大学-林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心,北京100871

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2024年第10期10-21,共12页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：云南省西南联合研究生院科技专项-基础研究和应用基础研究重大项目(202302d4040047):滇中城市群国土空间多目标优化与高质量发展提升路径研究资助。

摘　　要：工业用地扩张与经济增长的良性互动关乎地区高质量发展命脉,对推动地区经济、社会、资源与环境协调发展具有重要意义。基于此,以滇中城市群为例,使用2000-2022年县域面板数据,整合脱钩模型、耦合协调模型、PVAR模型深入探讨了其工业用地扩张与经济增长的互动特征及交互响应关系。研究表明:1)研究期内,滇中城市群工业用地扩张与经济增长发展模式以低效扩张型为主,占比为60.85%,其次是集约扩张型,占比为25.14%,两者合计为86%,但仍然有12.24%的为粗放扩张型,而衰退收缩型发展模式占比不高。2)耦合协调水平整体呈现波动上升的演变趋势,绝大多数地区均向更高水平的耦合协调发展状态跃进,但研究期内仅有五华区、罗平县、楚雄市、弥勒市、禄丰县耦合协调度大于0.5,区域间发展不平衡,上升空间大。3)工业用地扩张与经济增长存在长期均衡关系,短期内工业用地扩张受经济增长的正向影响较为明显,但工业用地扩张冲击对经济增长影响效果不理想,二者之间的良性互动程度较低。The benign interaction between industrial land expansion and economic growth is related to the lifeblood of regional high-quality development,and is of great significance to promoting the coordinated development of regional economy,society,resources and environment.Taking the central Yunnan urban agglomeration as an example,using the county-level panel data from 2000 to 2022,the interaction characteristics and interactive response relationship between industrial land expansion and economic growth are deeply discussed by integrating the decoupling model,coupling coordination model,and PVAR model.The results indicate that:1)During the study period,the development modes of industrial land expansion and economic growth in the cen⁃tral Yunnan urban agglomeration was dominated by inefficient expansion,accounting for 60.85%,followed by intensive expansion,accounting for 25.14%,but there was still 12.24%of the development modes belonging to extensive expansion,and the proportion of recession and contraction development modes were very small.2)The level of coupling coordination showed an evolutionary trend of fluctuated upward as a whole,and most of the regions were leaping towards a higher level of coupling and coordinated development,but only Wuhua District,Luoping County,Chuxiong City,Mile City,and Lufeng County had a coupling coordination degree greater than 0.5 during the study period,and the development was unbalanced between regions.So there is a large room for improvement.3)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between industrial land expansion and economic growth.In the short term,the expansion of industrial land is significantly positively influenced by economic growth,but the impact of industrial land expansion on economic growth is not ideal,and the degree of benign interaction between the two is low.

关 键 词：滇中城市群 工业用地扩张 经济增长 耦合协调度模型 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] F29