清代东南沿海的气候、收成与粮价变动(1736-1911)——以温州地区为中心  

Climate Change,Harvest and Grain Price in Southeast Coastal China(1736-1911):A Case Study of Wenzhou Region

作　　者：余开亮[1] YU Kai-liang(Institute of Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,200020)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院经济研究所,200020

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2024年第9期117-128,共12页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金后期资助项目“清代的粮价与市场空间结构”(项目编号:21FJLB031);温州学研究白鹿青年学者资助计划的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文以东南沿海地区为考察区域,分别从气候变迁、自然灾害、农业收成和粮价变动四个方面对清代温州地区的社会经济演变历史及其机制进行研究,探讨气候变化与自然灾害对东南沿海地区农业和社会经济的影响。在气候的冷暖变化方面,18世纪至19世纪前期是暖期,19世纪中后期为冷期。在气候的干湿变化方面,温州地区的旱涝灾害具有频繁多发、涝灾为主、冷期更多的特点,极端的旱涝灾害在冷期更为多发。粮食收成与气候变化存在较为明显的关联性,气候暖期的粮食收成高于冷期,旱灾对粮食收成的影响程度大于涝灾。粮价的变化受气候变化、自然灾害及收成分数的短期影响,长期来看粮价更多地由货币、人口、商业化程度等社会经济因素决定。This paper studies the impact of climate change and natural disasters on agriculture and economy in the southeast coastal region in China between 1736 and 1911.Based on Wenzhou prefecture,we collect datasets of climate change,disasters,agriculture yield and grain price,and investigate the correlation of climate change and social economic evolution.We find that is was warmer during 1730s and 1830s and a cold phase lasted from 1830s to 1900s.The disasters in Wenzhou prefecture occurred more frequently in cold phases,and mainly with floods.There is a significant correlation between climate change and agriculture yield.Grain yield in warm period is higher than that in cold period.Drought has greater impact on grain harvest than flood.Changes in grain prices are affected in the short term by climate change and natural disasters,as well as by harvest scores.In the long run,grain prices are more determined by social and economic factors such as currency,population and commercialization.

关 键 词：清代 气候 灾害 收成 粮价 

分 类 号：F129[经济管理—世界经济]