A new approach to land-use simulation that integrates macro-and microspatial characteristics:A case study of Wuhan,China  

一种顾及宏观和微观空间特征的土地利用模拟新方法——以中国武汉为例

作　　者：LI Muchun LI Boyan FENG Qi WANG Yunchen 李沐春;李柏延;冯起;王昀琛

机构地区：[1]School of Geography and Tourism,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi'an 710119,China [2]Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,CAS,Lanzhou 730000,China [3]School of Computer Science and Technology,Xi'an University of Posts and Telecommunications,Xi'an 710061,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2024年第10期2003-2027,共25页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42101259,No.42371101,No.42301455;Young Science and Technology New Star Project of Shaanxi Province,No.2024ZC-KJXX-013;Qin Chuangyuan Cites High-level Innovation or Entrepreneurship Talent Project,No.QCYRCXM-2023-066;Fifth Batch Special Funding(Pre-Station)from China Postdoctoral Science Foundation,No.2023TQ0207;Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.GK202304024,No.1110011297,No.1112010355;Teaching Reform Project of Shaanxi Normal University,No.23GGYS-JG06。

摘　　要：Land-use and land-cover change(LUCC)simulations are powerful tools for evaluating and predicting future landscape dynamics amid rapid human-nature interactions to support decision-making.However,existing models often overlook spatial heterogeneity and temporal dependencies when modeling LUCC at both the macro and microscales.In this paper,we propose a new model,a self-calibrated convolutional neural network-based cellular automata(SC–CNN–CA)model,which integrates macro-and microspatial characteristics to simulate complex interactions among land-use types.The SC-CNN-CA model incorporates a self-calibration module using Gaussian functions to capture macrotrend such as urban sprawl while accounting for microlevel land-use interactions such as neighborhood effects.The results indicated that(1)the neighborhood effect between agricultural land and urban land tended to“increase followed by a decrease.”(2)Urban sprawl in Wuhan was highly compact,with a relatively high intensity of urban expansion at distances between 11.96 km and 24.44 km.(3)Compared with the other CA models tested,the SC-CNN-CA model demonstrated superior performance,achieving an overall accuracy of 84.12% and a figure of merit of 20.20%.This new model can enhance our understanding of historical LUCC trajectories and improve predictions of spatially explicit information for efficient land resource and urban management.

关 键 词：land-use change modeling land-system behaviors cellular automata SELF-CALIBRATION WUHAN 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]