美国货币政策、外汇市场不确定性与人民币国际化  

U.S.Monetary Policy,Foreign Exchange Market Uncertainty and RMB Internationalization

作　　者：刘刚 卢凯隆 王少林 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学金融学院,广东广州510320

出　　处：《浙江金融》2024年第8期15-27,共13页Zhejiang Finance

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目:宏观审慎政策作用于系统性金融风险的理论机制、时变效应及政策优化研究(2020A1515010863)。

摘　　要：本文通过TVP-VAR模型研究美国货币政策和外汇市场不确定性对人民币国际化的影响。研究发现,人民币汇率波动期间,境外主体增加了人民币股票资产,债券资产规模则先增后减。美国货币政策的不确定性不仅加剧了外汇市场的不确定性,还影响了境外主体持有人民币资产的决策。为应对这些挑战,中国应扩大金融市场开放,提供多样的人民币资产,并深化汇率市场化改革,同时加强对美国货币政策的监测与应对,以稳定外汇市场。This paper investigates the impact of U.S.monetary policy and exchange rate market uncertainty on the internationalization of the Chinese yuan using a TVP-VAR model.The study finds that during periods of yuan exchange rate volatility,foreign entities increased their holdings of yuan-denominated equity assets,while the scale of bond assets first increased and then decreased.The uncertainty in U.S.monetary policy not only exacerbates exchange rate market uncertainty but also influences the decisions of foreign entities regarding their holdings of yuan-denominated assets.To address these challenges,China should expand the openness of its financial markets,offer a diverse range of yuan-denominated assets,deepen the market-oriented reform of its exchange rate,and strengthen monitoring and responses to U.S.monetary policy to stabilize the foreign exchange market.

关 键 词：美国货币政策不确定性与外汇市场不确定性 境外主体人民币资产持有 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F821.6[经济管理—财政学]