黄河源区多源降水数据性能评估  

Performance Evaluation of Multi-source Precipitation Data in the Yellow River Source Area

作　　者：江沁心 雍斌[1,2] 张红亮[3] 陶新[4] JIANG Qinxin;YONG Bin;ZHANG Hongliang;TAO Xin(National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Numerical Earth System Prediction Centre,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China;Hydrographic Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450004,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [3]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081 [4]黄河水利委员会水文局,郑州450004

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2024年第3期29-38,共10页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U224320068)。

摘　　要：黄河源区地形复杂,测站稀少,精确获取降水信息困难。以黄河源区为研究区域,基于日尺度综合分析4种多源降水数据集:新一代卫星反演降水产品GSMaP-Gauge和IMERG-Final,再分析资料ERA5和多源融合产品MSWEP,研究了这些产品的评价指标随时间和站点空间分布的变化。结果表明:在黄河源区的雨季(5—10月)、中部站点(尤其是久治县、达日县)性能更好。ERA5高估最严重,仅在东南部的少数地区较好;IMERG-Final在降水的空间分布方面表现最好,系统偏差接近零。因其拥有最高的相关系数、最低的误报率和最高的关键成功指数,在黄河源区推荐使用GSMaP-Gauge。相关的评估结果将为黄河源区降水信息的获取和降水数据集的选择提供帮助。The Yellow River source area has complex topography and few stations,making it difficult to obtain precipitation information accurately.Taking the Yellow River source area as the study area,four multi-source precipitation datasets were comprehensively analyzed based on the daily scale.They are the new generation satellite inversion precipitation products including GSMaP-Gauge and IMERG-Final,the information ERA5 and multi-source fusion product MSWEP were analyzed.Furthermore,the changes in the evaluation indexes of these products with time,spatial distribution of the stations,and the intensity of rainfall were explored.The results show that,the precipitation datasets perform better in the rainy season(from May to October)in the Yellow River source area,and in the central sites(especially Jiuzhi County and Dari County).ERA5 overestimates the most severely,it performs better only in a few areas of the southeast.IMERG-Final performs the best in terms of spatial distribution of precipitation,with a systematic bias close to zero.It is more recommended to adopt GSMaP-Gauge for the study in the Yellow River source area,because it has the highest correlation coefficient,the lowest false alarm rate and the highest critical success index.The related evaluation results will be helpful for the acquisition of precipitation information and the selection of precipitation datasets in the Yellow River source area.

关 键 词：GPM ERA5 MSWEP 精度评估 黄河源区 

分 类 号：P412.27[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]