环境影响下社会热点事件传播干预模型构建与分析  

Construction and Analysis of Hot Event Communication Intervention Model under Environmental Impact

作　　者：殷复莲[1,2] 王锦霞 潘妍妍 YIN Fulian;WANG Jinxia;PAN Yanyan(State Key Laboratory of Media Convergence and Communication,Communication University of China,Beijing 100024,China;College of Information and Communication Engineering,Communication University of China,Beijing 100024,China)

机构地区：[1]中国传媒大学媒体融合与传播国家重点实验室,北京100024 [2]中国传媒大学信息与通信工程学院,北京100024

出　　处：《情报科学》2024年第5期21-34,共14页Information Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金“数据驱动的多平台舆情传播耦合动力学建模及预测”(4232015)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】融合信息传播环境因素,从网络信息传播动力学的角度分析观点迁移规律、完善舆情传播机制,提供政府、媒体等外部环境干预下的舆情引导建议,更有针对性地优化当前舆情生态治理系统。【方法/过程】本研究在传统信息传播动力学模型的基础上,分析环境因素对舆论引导方向的关键作用,将意识形态和观点作为不同的导向构建干预动力学模型。进一步地,使用舆情事件的真实传播数据进行动力学分析,对所构建的干预模型开展多角度敏感性分析实验。【结果/结论】本研究模型的干预参数能够明显改变舆情事件的观点扩散态势,且对原始传播过程中传播规模较小的观点方向影响程度更大;从微观数据层面折射现实舆情规律,为监管部门建设有数据支撑的舆论干预理论体系。【创新/局限】针对不同场景下的热点事件提出了两种考虑信息传播环境因素的舆情干预模型,将多方主体的干预作用进行抽象化公式表示,合理地融入多场景舆情传播动力学模型,能够更为全面地进行舆情干预。[Purpose/significance]Considering the environmental factors of information propagation,we analyze the law of opinion transfer from the perspective of network information dissemination dynamics,to improve the mechanism of public opinion dissemina-tion,provide effective suggestions about public opinion guidance under external environmental interventions such as government and media,and contrapuntally optimize the current public opinion ecological governance system.[Method/process]Based on the tradi-tional information dissemination dynamic models,this study analyzes the key role of environmental factors in guiding public opinion,and constructs intervention dynamic models with ideology and opinion as different orientations.Furthermore,we conduct dynamic analysis on real propagation data of hot topic events,and carry out multi angle sensitivity analysis experiments on our intervention dy-namic models.[Result/conclusion]The intervention parameters in our models can significantly change the trend of opinion evolution on hot topic events,and have a greater impact on the direction of viewpoints with smaller dissemination scales in the original dissemi-nation process.We find out the laws of public opinion from the micro data level,and build a theoretical system of public opinion inter-vention with data support for related authorities.[Innovation/limitation]We propose two intervention dynamic models considering the environmental factors of information dissemination for hot topic events in different scenes.Moreover,we use the mathematical formula to characterize the intervention role of the multiple subjects,which is reasonably integrated into the dynamic models of public opinion propagation in multiple scenes,in order to carry out public opinion intervention more comprehensively.

关 键 词：信息传播 动力学模型 环境因素 舆情干预 复杂网络 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]