考虑工作人群及不同防护措施的疫情传播速度仿真  

Simulation Analysis of Epidemic Transmission Speed Considering Working Population and Different Protection Measures

作　　者：牛莉霞[1] 于钱 NIU Lixia;YU Qian(School of Business and Management,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao 125105,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁葫芦岛125105

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2024年第8期177-183,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(52174184)。

摘　　要：本文主要针对疫情走势进行了分析,考虑了不同人群和不同防护措施对疫情走势的影响。针对此问题首先对传统的SEIR传染模型进行了优化,模拟出在公共场所内工作人员感染病毒后和普通人员感染病毒后的疫情传播情况;其次对比不同防护措施情况下的疫情传播情况,分析了物理防护和化学防护对疫情传播速率的影响。结果发现,初始潜伏者为工作人员时,疫情爆发的更加迅猛、快速;工作人员在分别采取物理防护和化学防护措施后会使得疫情发展速度有不同程度的降低。化学防护措施的防控效果相当于三级物理防护措施的防控效果,全国公共场所的工作人员在疫情防控工作下需要进行比普通人群更高等级的物理防护,也为后期疫情扩散期间的物资分配提供了依据。This essay mainly analyzes the trend of the epidemic,considering the influence of different populations and different protective measures on the trend of the epidemic.Firstly,the impact of different groups on the transmission of the epidemic is considered,and the transmission of the epidemic after the infection of staff and ordinary people in public places is simulated.Combined with some specific values of COVID-19,the transmission probability of the infectious disease,the number of contacts of the infectious person,the possibility of converting the latent person into the infectious person,and the total number of people in the system are determined.At the same time,the infection mechanism of the latent person and the mechanism that the cured person can be reinfected are added.On this basis,the infection rate coefficient is determined respectively according to the proportion of the number of contacts.Based on this,an improved SEIR infectious disease model is established,and the change in the number of patients is determined through simulation.Secondly,the impact of physical and chemical protection on the transmission rate of the epidemic is analyzed by comparing the transmission of the epidemic under different protective measures.Physical protection measures have good or bad effects due to different standards,materials and other protective effects.The grades of physical protection measures are divided into four levels for discussion,and the anti-epidemic effect of measures is quantified as 80%,60%,40%,20%,and the control group is set up 0%.The simulation solution of the infection process is carried out respectively.In terms of chemical protection,the concept of antibody phase TS is introduced.During the antibody phase,people will not be infected by contact,and specific measures of chemical protection are taking drugs or health products,etc.After chemical protection,the antibody phase can be extended.This model is an improvement and optimization of the classic SEIR infectious disease model,and it adds the mechanism

关 键 词：新冠疫情 工作人群 传播速度 疫情防控 传染速率 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]