中国大豆需水量时空演变趋势分析  

Spatiotemporal variations in water requirements of soybean across China

作　　者：张玺玲 彭致功[2,3] 张宝忠 魏征[2] 段喜明[1] 孙岩颖[2,3] 杨贵羽 马继媛[2] 门立雪 ZHANG Xiling;PENG Zhigong;ZHANG Baozhong;WEI Zheng;DUAN Ximing;SUN Yanying;YANG Guiyu;MA Jiyuan;MEN Lixue(Shanxi Agricultural University Forest College,Taigu 030801,China;State Key Laboratory of Watershed Water Cycle Simulation and Regulation,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Ningxia University School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学林学院,山西太谷030801 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,银川750021

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2024年第10期30-37,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFD1900504);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目(ID145B2021);新疆维吾尔自治区塔里木河流域管理局项目(TGJJG-2023KYXM0010)。

摘　　要：[目的]探究中国大豆需水量的时空演变趋势。[方法]基于1971-2020年气象数据,采用作物系数法计算中国大豆需水量,采用Mann-KendaⅡ趋势检验与重标极差(R/S)分析中国大豆需水量及水分亏缺值的时空变化。[结果]中国大豆全生育期需水量、水分亏缺值分别为382、111 mm,总体上不缺水,但在北方干旱半干旱区、青藏高原区、黄土高原区的干旱缺水形势严重。在北方干旱半干旱区东部、东北平原区南部、黄淮海平原区西部、云贵高原区南部、华南区,大豆干旱缺水形势趋于恶化。未来在北方干旱半干旱区东部、云贵高原区西南部、青藏高原区西部等缺水地区,干旱大豆生育期内缺水形势呈恶化趋势,而在黄淮海地区西部、云贵高原区东南部、长江中下游地区南北部及华南区西部等丰水地区,大豆生育期内存在潜在的缺水危机。[结论]在东北平原区南部、黄淮海平原西部及长江中下游地区南北部等大豆扩种区域,未来大豆干旱形势呈加剧趋势,在这些地区扩大大豆种植面积时需采用节水措施以确保水资源可持续利用。【Objective】The cultivation of soybeans has increased in China and to assess the potential influence of this on agricultural water usage,we analysed the spatiotemporal variation in its water requirements across the whole country.【Method】The analysis was based on meteorological data measured from 1971 to 2020 in main soybean production regions.Water requirement of soybean in each region was calculated using crop coefficient and the potential evapotranspiration.The Mann-Kendall trend test method and the rescaled range method were used to analyze spatiotemporal variation in water requirement and water deficit of the soybean,for both current conditions and projected future scenarios.【Result】The average water requirement and water deficit of soybeans during their growth period across the country were 382 mm and 111 mm,respectively.However,these values exhibited significant spatial variability.The arid and semi-arid areas in the North,as well as the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau are particularly susceptible to drought and water shortage.The average water deficit across various regions in the country ranged from 30 mm to 344 mm.Drought and water shortage have been worsening in some regions,which include the Eastern arid and semi-arid regions in Northern China,the Southern Northeast plain,the Western Huang-Huai-Hai plain,the Southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau,the Southern region in the Northeast plain,the Western Huang-Huai-Hai plain,the Southern Yunnan-Guizhou plateau,specially in the Southern Yunnan-Kweichow Plateau.Furthermore,drought and water shortages in the Eastern arid and semi-arid regions in Northern China,the Southwest of the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau,and the Western Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are expected to Worsen.A potential water shortage crisis is anticipated in the Western Huang-Huai-Hai region,the Southeast of the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau,and the Northern,middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.【Conclusion】Our analysis indicates that drought and water shortage for soybean productio

关 键 词：大豆 水分亏缺 Mann-KendaⅡ趋势检验 R/S分析 时空格局 

分 类 号：S3-3[农业科学—农艺学]