耕地变化碳效应及其驱动力影响的时空分异——以江苏为例  

Spatio-temporal Variations of Carbon Effects and the Driving Forces from Arable Land Transformation: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

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作  者:陈龙高[1,2] 王欣瑶 杨小艳 吴海倩 林莹 陈龙乾 CHEN Long-gao;WANG Xin-yao;YANG Xiao-yan;WU Hai-qian;LIN Ying;CHEN Long-qian(Research Center for Transition Development and Rural Revitalization of Resource-based Cities in China,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Public Policy&Management,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221116,China;School of Geography,Geomatics and Planning,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区:[1]中国矿业大学中国资源型城市转型发展与乡村振兴研究中心,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学公共管理学院,江苏徐州221116 [3]江苏师范大学地理测绘与城乡规划学院,江苏徐州221116

出  处:《长江流域资源与环境》2024年第9期1953-1968,共16页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基  金:江苏省社会科学基金项目(22GLB028);中国矿业大学校基本科研业务费项目——重大项目培育专项基金(2022ZDPYSK08)。

摘  要:耕地利用兼具碳源与碳汇双重效应,在碳达峰、碳中和(“双碳”)目标实现过程中发挥着重要作用。综合运用排放系数法、重心转移与地理加权回归(GWR)分析法,研究了近30年江苏耕地变化碳效应及其驱动力影响的时空分异。结果表明:(1)30年间绝大多数区域耕地地均净碳排放呈吸收效应,苏中、苏北耕地利用碳吸收总量效应相对苏南更大;各县区耕地流入净碳排放呈减少趋势,且苏北耕地流入净碳排放减少幅度明显快于苏南;耕地流出净碳排放增量则均为正值,苏中、苏北增量增加幅度快于苏南县区;耕地流入碳积蓄整体呈沿海地区和南部县区高、其他县区低的特点。(2)驱动力分析结果发现:经济总量增加会导致耕地变化碳排放强度增加,但二三产业产值与人口数量因素在多数区域对耕地变化碳排放强度呈负向贡献;城镇工矿用地增加对耕地变化碳排放强度的正向贡献最大,村庄用地增加亦呈正向贡献;交通区位因素在不同区域贡献方向不同;高程、植被与水体因素对耕地变化碳排放呈正向贡献,坡度则呈负向贡献,地质灾害距离在大部分区域亦呈负向贡献。研究揭示了耕地变化的碳排放贡献与驱动力影响的时空分异,进而从耕地资源管理利用角度提出促进江苏省实现“双碳”目标的相关政策建议,成果可为制定相应的减碳增汇对策提供科学的决策支持,也可为其他地方开展此类工作提供方法参考。Arable land contributes to both carbon emission and absorption,and thus plays a significant role in achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality("dual carbon")goals.Using the emission coefficient method,gravity transfer analysis and geographically weighted regression(GWR)analysis,we investigated the spatiotemporal variations in the carbon effects of arable land changes in Jiangsu province over the past 30 years.We found that:(1)The majority of the region exhibited an overall carbon absorption effect in terms of net carbon emissions over the 30-year period.In comparison to southern Jiangsu,the carbon absorption effect was relatively higher in northern and central Jiangsu.All counties demonstrated a decrease in the net carbon emission of arable land inflows,with northern Jiangsu experiencing a pronounced decline compared to southern Jiangsu.Conversely,an increase in net carbon emission increment was observed for arable land outflows in all counties,with central and northern Jiangsu witnessing a faster annual increase.The overall carbon sequestration of arable land was higher in coastal and southern regions,while lower in other counties.(2)An increase in economics led to an intensification of arable land carbon emissions,while the secondary and tertiary industry GDP contributed negatively across the region.The increase of urban and industrial land use imposed the greatest positive contribution to the intensity of carbon emissions.Rural land use also exhibited a positive effect.The contribution of transportation location factors varied across different regions,whereas elevation,vegetation,and water-related factors revealed a positive contribution.Conversely,slope exhibited a negative contribution,and the distance to geological hazards also had negative contributions in most regions.This study revealed the spatio-temporal variations in the carbon emission contribution and the associated driving forces of arable land changes.Based on this,relevant policy recommendations were proposed from the perspective of land resourc

关 键 词:耕地变化 碳效应 驱动力 时空分异 江苏省 

分 类 号:F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]

 

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