新中国成立以来中国粮食生产多元要素驱动定量研究  

Quantitative study on the key driving factors of grain production in China from 1949 to 2020

作　　者：秦长海[1,2] 王明 赵勇[1,2] 何国华[1,2] 曲军霖 游梦园 QIN Changhai;WANG Ming;ZHAO Yong;HE Guohua;QU Junlin;YOU Mengyuan(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Key Laboratory of Water Safety for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region of the Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第10期1746-1758,共13页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093);国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作研究与交流项目(52061125101);国家自然科学基金重点项目(52239004);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(52109042)。

摘　　要：粮食安全事关国家安全与社会稳定,该文基于1949—2020年中国31个省级行政区(不含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区)的数据,采用Cobb-Douglas函数,按照不同的地域范围划分方式构建了区域粮食生产模型,量化解析了不同时段内的第一产业从业人员数、机械动力强度、有效灌溉面积、化肥折纯量、受灾面积和复种指数对粮食产量的作用。结果表明,有效灌溉面积和化肥折纯量对中国粮食生产的贡献度不断提升,第一产业从业人员数和复种指数的贡献度显著下降,机械动力强度的贡献度先提升再下降,受灾面积对粮食的减产效用先增强再减弱;各要素对粮食生产的驱动作用趋于均衡化,未来粮食安全需依靠以有效灌溉面积为基础的多要素协同保障;有效灌溉面积的北移和人口重心的南移共同驱动了中国粮食调运格局的转变,这种“北粮南运”的格局仍将持续并可能呈现扩大态势。保障中国粮食安全需充分发挥国家水网的水资源调配功能,通过增加有效灌溉面积驱动多要素协同促进粮食增产。[Objective]In China,food is a fundamental necessity for the people and represents a key national interest.Food security is vital for economic development,social stability,and national security.However,current research often features relatively short time series data,and the vital role of irrigation as a key factor in grain production has been largely overlooked.This oversight has hindered the effective elucidation of the patterns of contribution from diverse production factors across regions and stages.Regarding food security strategy,data from 31 province-level regions in China were analyzed using grain production as a metric.During this analysis,we quantified the impact and variations of different factors on regional grain production from 1949 to 2020.The analysis was conducted at the different geographical scale.This study aims to identify the primary driving factors and provide insights to support the stable growth of grain production in China.[Methods]To achieve this goal,a model was constructed using the Cobb-Douglas function,with grain production as the dependent variable.The explanatory variables introduced into the model comprised practitioners in the primary industry,agricultural machinery power,effective irrigation area,net fertilizer quantity,affected area,and cropping index.Additionally,a random error term was incorporated into the model.To address issues of multicollinearity among the data,ridge regression was used to fit the model.The values required for machinery,effective irrigation area,net fertilizer quantity,and affected area in the model were calculated by multiplying the total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of farmland,net quantity of fertilizer for agricultural production,and total affected area for agriculture by the proportion of grain-sowing area to the total sowing area of crops.[Results]The research results indicated a continuous increase in the contribution of effective irrigation area and net fertilizer quantity to grain production in China,while the elasti

关 键 词：粮食安全 国家水网 有效灌溉面积 北粮南运 岭回归 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]