System Reliability Analysis of Reservoir Landslides:Insights from Long-Term Reservoir Operation  

作　　者：Kang Liao Yiping Wu Fasheng Miao 

机构地区：[1]Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China [2]Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China

出　　处：《Journal of Earth Science》2024年第5期1583-1593,共11页地球科学学刊（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Postdoctoral Fellowship Program of CPSF(No.GZB20230607);the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2682024CX125);the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2023YFC3007201);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42377161);the Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(No.2023AFB580);the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Project(No.QKHZC[2023]YB127)。

摘　　要：The reservoir operation awakens numerous landslides with multiple sliding surfaces known as reservoir landslides,and the systematic stability analysis for such landslides is becoming increasingly urgent.Taking the Majiagou landslide as an example,this paper analyses the comprehensive performance of the landslide from a probabilistic point of view.Under a reservoir operation cycle,a series of numerical analyses are carried out to simulate the migration of the seepage field,then the dynamic stability of the landslide is quantified accordingly.Subsequently,the wetting-drying cycles test is used to model the weakening of strength parameters in hydro-fluctuation belt under the long-term reservoir operation.Considering the weakening effect of long-term reservoir operation on the hydrofluctuation belt,the system reliability is evaluated using the Ditlevsen's bounds.The results suggest that the reservoir operation can affect the stability of the landslide by changing the seepage field.The system failure probability gradually rises as the number of wetting-drying cycles increases.Compared with conventional probabilistic analysis that calculates the failure probability of each sliding surface mechanically,analyzing the landslide in terms of system reliability can effectively narrow the failure probability range,which provides an insightful idea for evaluating the systematic stability of analogous reservoir landslides.

关 键 词：reservoir operation reservoir landslides hydro-fluctuation belt system reliability ditlevsen's bounds engineering geology 

分 类 号：TV697.23[水利工程—水利水电工程] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]