增值税留抵退税政策是否具有稳就业效应?——基于2015—2023年上市企业数据的实证分析  

Does the VAT Credit Refund Policy Exert a Stabilizing Impact on Employment?——Empirical Analysis Based on the Data of Listed Enterprises During the Period from 2015 to 2023

作　　者：裴育[1] 周佳胺 Pei Yu;Zhou Jiaan

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学,南京211815 [2]南京审计大学经济学院,南京211815

出　　处：《公共财政研究》2024年第4期17-34,共18页Public Finance Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“有利于共同富裕的税收制度改革研究”(23ZDA020)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：稳就业是当前复杂经济形势下工作的重中之重,而政府实施增值税留抵退税政策有利于稳固宏观经济基本面。本文依托2015—2023年中国非金融业A股上市公司数据,运用双重差分法,考察增值税留抵退税政策是否具有稳就业效应,以及对企业雇佣决策的具体影响。研究结果显示,留抵退税政策有力促进了企业雇佣规模扩大,此结论经过多种稳健性测试后依然稳固。该政策主要通过减轻企业融资约束促进就业增长。异质性分析发现,这一政策对位于东部与中部地区大型企业产生的正面推动力尤为突出。进一步分析发现,留抵退税政策对于企业雇佣高学历人才也具有促进作用。因此,本文建议持续深入推行留抵退税政策,对中小型企业实施精准化政策扶持以及保障西部经济弱势地区的政策实施。Stabilizing employment is currently the top priority in the complex economic situation,and the government's implementation of the VAT credit refund policy is beneficial for stabilizing the macroeconomic fundamentals.Based on the data of China's non-financial A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023,this paper employs the difference-in-differences method to investigate the specific impact of the VAT credit refund policy on enterprises'employment decisions and whether it has a stabilizing effect on employment.The research results show that the credit refund policy has strongly promoted the expansion of enterprises'employment scale,and this conclusion remains solid after various robustness tests.Further mechanism exploration reveals that this policy mainly promotes employment growth through the mechanism of alleviating enterprises'financing constraints.Additionally,from the heterogeneity analysis,it is found that this policy has a particularly prominent positive driving force for large enterprises located in the eastern and central regions.Further analysis finds that the policy also promotes the employment of highly educated talents by enterprises.Therefore,this paper suggests that the credit refund policy should be continuously and deeply implemented,precise policy support should be provided for small and medium-sized enterprises,and the policy implementation in economically disadvantaged areas in the western region should be guaranteed.

关 键 词：留抵退税 就业 融资约束 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]