东北地区经济增长及影响因素研究  

Research on Economic Growth and Its Influencing Factors in Northeast China

作　　者：叶青[1] 王武林 YE Qing;WANG Wulin(College of Geography and Oceanography,Minjiang University,Fuzhou 350108,China;College of Tourism,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China)

机构地区：[1]闽江学院地理与海洋学院,福州350108 [2]湖南师范大学旅游学院,长沙410081

出　　处：《长春大学学报》2024年第9期32-40,共9页Journal of Changchun University

基　　金：中国博士后科学面上项目(2018M641458);国家自然科学项目(41701118);福建省发树慈善基金会资助研究专项(MFS23007)。

摘　　要：东北地区全面振兴关乎国家发展大局。选择东北地区为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall检验方法和联立方程模型分别研究东北地区经济增长的趋势、阶段划分和影响因素。结果表明:1978—2021年期间,东北地区GDP增速表现为显著的下降趋势,1992年、1999年和2006年三个突变点将东北地区经济增长划分为四个阶段;2000—2021年期间,东北地区对外贸易、产业结构高级化、居民消费、固定资产投资、地方财政支出对其经济增长产生一定的正向促进作用,滞后一期的城市化水平阻碍了经济增长,而且东北地区经济增长对其对外贸易提升、产业结构优化均产生了较小的且不显著的促进作用。The all-round revitalization of the Northeast China is related to the overall situation of national development.This paper,selecting the Northeast China as the object,uses Mann-Kendall test and simultaneous equation model to research the trend,stage division and influencing factors of economic growth.The results show that,from 1978 to 2021,GDP growth in the Northeast China showed a significant downward trend,and the economic growth could be divided into four stages by three mutation year of 1992,1999 and 2006;from 2000 to 2021,foreign trade,advanced industrial structure,residents’consumption,investment of fixed assets and local fiscal expenditure in Northeast China had a positive effect on its economic growth,while the lagging urbanization level hindered its economic growth,and economic growth of the Northeast China played a minor and insignificant role in promoting foreign trade promotion and industrial structure optimization.

关 键 词：东北地区 经济增长 MANN-KENDALL检验 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]