中国式现代化的推进、人口转型与弹性退休制度  

Promotion of Chinese-style Modernization,Population Transformation and Flexible Retirement System

作　　者：张翼[1] Zhang Yi(School of Sociology and Ethnology,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学社会与民族学院,北京100732

出　　处：《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期128-136,共9页Journal of Peking University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：要以人口高质量发展支撑中国式现代化,就必须遵循人口转型规律,在第一次人口红利之后继续开发第二次人口红利。科学技术日新月异的发展,人工智能对各种工作场景的重塑,会推动劳动参与人口继续从农业部门和工业部门向服务业部门转移,强化“人+人工智能”的“合成社会”特征,全面释放新质生产力的动力活力。这使科技创新颠覆的就业岗位可能会多于为其创造的新就业岗位。在这种情况下,在工业社会设计的逐渐延迟法定退休年龄的制度就需要“按照自愿、弹性原则”而稳妥有序地、渐进地推进“延迟”。需要注意的是,弹性退休制度的设计,需要解决好社会的公平正义等问题。In order to support Chinese-style modernization with high-quality population development,we must follow the law of population transformation and continue to develop the second demographic dividend after the first one.The rapid advancements in science and technology,along with the reshaping of various work scenes by artificial intelligence,will drive the labor participation population to continue to transfer from the agricultural and industrial sectors to the service sector.This will enhance the characteristics of a“synthetic society”integrated by humans and artificial intelligence,so as to fully unleash the dynamism and vitality of the new-quality productive force.Consequently,technological innovation may wipe out more jobs than it creates.In this context,the system designed in industrial societies to gradually delay the legal retirement age needs to be implemented in a steady,orderly,and gradual manner,adhering to the principles of free will and flexibility.It should be noted that the design of a flexible retirement system needs to address such issues as social equity and justice.

关 键 词：第二次人口红利 智能社会 劳动时长缩短 弹性退休制度 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]