非均衡常态下促均衡:中国现代化进程中的人口发展  

Promoting Equilibrium under the Non-balanced Normal State:Population Development in China’s Modernization Process

作　　者：宋健[1] 姜春云 Song Jian;Jiang Chunyun(Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Bejing 100872,China;School of Sociology and Population Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与健康学院,北京100872

出　　处：《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2024年第5期137-145,共9页Journal of Peking University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“高质量发展视域下中国人口均衡发展的理论建构与多维测度研究”(20&ZD173)。

摘　　要：非均衡性是人口发展的常态,往往表现为不同时期的人口问题。从“表里”两条脉络梳理1949年以来中国人口发展的认识演变及实践历程,表层脉络可概括为从“抑增长”到“促生育”,里层脉络可概括为从“总量调控”到“多维统筹”。基于现代化理论审视人口均衡发展,有助于探索中国现代化进程中人口均衡发展的基础和宏微观机制,当前面临的低生育率问题在某种程度上可视为外部主导型发展失衡,应从优化人口发展战略、提高人口治理能力和水平、提升个体主观能动性等方面促进人口长期均衡发展。Non-equilibrium is the normal state of population development,which has tended to manifest itself as population problems in different periods.This article looks back at the evolution of understanding and the process of practice concerning China's population development since 1949 from the exterior and interior perspectives.The exterior perspective can be summarized as a process from“growth suppression”to“fertility promotion”,while the interior perspective can be summarized as a process from“total population size control”to“multidimensional overall planning”.Examining the balanced population development on the basis of modernization theory is helpful to explore the foundation and macro-micro mechanism of balanced population development in the process of China's modernization.The current low fertility rate can be,to some extent,regarded as an externally-dominated development imbalance.We should promote long-term balanced population development by optimizing population development strategy,improving the capacity and level of population governance,and enhancing individual subjective initiatives.

关 键 词：人口发展 长期均衡 非均衡 中国现代化 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]