新型电力系统中气电与煤电调峰经济性研究  

Research on the economy of peak shaving between the gas-fired power generation and the coal-fred power generation in the new power system

作　　者：池立勋 周淑慧[1] 黄龑 郝迎鹏[1] 张瑞[2] 佟勇婧 CHI Lixun;ZHOU Shuhui;HUANG Yan;HAO Yingpeng;ZHANG Rui;TONG Yongjing(PetroChina Planning and Engineering Institute;PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing Company Jiangsu Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司天然气销售江苏分公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第9期56-67,77,共13页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：新能源发电的间歇性和随机性等特点带来的电力系统平衡和安全问题需要调峰系统解决。选取煤电调峰和气电调峰在不同应用场景下的综合竞争力进行研究,采用平准化度电成本作为衡量标准,充分考虑固定成本、启停成本、燃料成本、碳排放权交易成本等因素。研究表明,伴随新能源发电装机和利用规模的增加,燃煤和燃气机组的利用小时数趋于降低,启停次数趋于增多,由此带来机组度电成本上升,但两类机组度电成本的差异逐步缩小,度电成本的影响因素由以燃料价格为主转变为由燃料价格和维修费用共同作用;煤电机组度电成本对燃料价格、启停次数和碳价敏感度逐渐趋于平衡,燃气机组度电成本对各因素的敏感度仍以燃料价格为主。当碳价在70~200元/吨时,在山西、内蒙古等煤炭资源相对丰富的区域,煤电调峰经济性较好;四川、东南沿海、河北、海南等地区由于具有天然气资源供应优势,气电调峰具备竞争性。若未来碳价达到500元/吨,气电优势将进一步扩大至全国。Power system balance and safety issues caused by intermittent and random of new energy power generation need to be addressed by the peaking system.The paper selects the overall competitiveness of coal-fired peaking and gas-fred peaking in different application scenarios to study,takes the levelized cost of energy as a measure standard,and fully considers fixed cost,start-up and shutdown cost,fuel cost,and carbon emission trading cost.The results show that the utilization hours of coal-fired and gas-fired units decrease while the number of start-ups and shutdowns increases with the increase of installed new energy power generations and utilization scales,leading to the increase of unit cost of electricity,but the cost difference between the two types of units gradually narrows,and the main influencing factors of unit cost of electricity change from fuel price to the combination of fuel price and maintenance cost.The sensitivity of unit cost of electricity of coal-fired power generation units to the fuel price,number of startups,shutdowns,and carbon price tends to decrease gradually but the sensitivity of unit cost of electricity of gas-fired power generation units is still the fuel price.On the one hand,when the carbon price is between 70 and 200 yuan/ton,the economy of coal-fired power generation is better in such regions with relatively rich coal resources as Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.On the other hand,the gas-fired power generation is more competitive in Sichuan,southeast coast,Hebei,and Hainan.The advantages of the gas-fred power generation would expend to all country if the carbon price reaches 500 yuan/ton in the future.

关 键 词：天然气发电 煤电 调峰 天然气价格 经济性 度电成本 

分 类 号：F424.6[经济管理—产业经济] F416.61