2024年第四季度及2025年上半年国际油价走势分析  

International crude oil price trends in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first half of 2025

作　　者：任娜 夏潇远 胡迪 REN Na;XIA Xiaoyuan;HU Di(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第9期99-104,共6页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：预计2024年第四季度全球石油需求季节性回落,全球石油供应持续增加,供需基本面转向宽松,对国际油价构成压力,国际油价波动重心整体较第三季度下移,布伦特原油均价为70~75美元/桶。预计2025年上半年美国新总统上台将影响全球政治经济格局,“欧佩克+”产量政策将决定供应增加节奏,国际石油市场不稳定性和不确定性较大。在基准情景、乐观情景、悲观情景下,预计2025年上半年布伦特油价波动范围分别为70~80美元/桶、75~85美元/桶和65~75美元/桶。In the fourth quarter of 2024,global oil demand will decline seasonally,while global oil supplies continue to rise,making global oil market ease.International oil price will have the pressure and the volatility center of gravity of crude oil prices is lower than in the third quarter,and the average price of Brent crude oil would be$70~75/barrel.It is expected that in the first half of 2025,the new president of the United States may influence the global political and economic pattern,while the production policy of the OPEC+group will determine the pace of supply increase,leading to the bigger instability and certainty.Under the baseline scenario,the optimistic scenario,and the pessimistic scenario,Brent oil prices in the first half of 2025 are expected to fluctuate in the range of US$70-80/barrel,US$75-85/barrel,and US$65-75/barrel,respectively.

关 键 词：布伦特油价 石油供需 地缘局势 经济形势 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]