中国出口地理结构的转变及其动因分析  

Analysis of the Transformation of China's Export Geographical Structure and its Driving Forces

作　　者：屠新泉[1] 李智 李建桐 TU Xinquan;LI Zhi;LI Jiantong

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院 [2]中国人民大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2024年第9期4-21,共18页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD810003);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(22YJC790054);世界贸易组织教席项目(WCP);对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(21QD10)。

摘　　要：发达国家曾长期是“中国制造”的主要市场,但近年来中国对发达国家市场的依赖程度明显弱化,发展中国家在中国出口中所占据的份额呈攀升之势。文章将上述现象称为“中国出口地理结构的转变”,并深入探究了其动因。研究发现,上述现象的出现是中国要素结构快速调整、产业结构持续升级、比较优势相应变化所引致的必然结果。控制中美贸易摩擦、跨国公司全球化布局以及新冠肺炎疫情等因素的影响,并通过工具变量处理内生性问题后,上述结论仍然成立。进一步分析表明,中国与发达国家的贸易模式正在向以产业内贸易为主转变,品牌国际化将越来越成为中国与发达国家开展贸易的关键因素。各级政府和企业如何适应上述出口新形势进而助力中国经济高质量发展,是十分值得思考的问题。The developed countries have long been the primary market for“Made in China”,but in recent years,China's dependence on the developed country markets has significantly weakened and the share of China's exports to the developing countries has been on the rise.This paper refers to the above phenomenon as“the transformation of China's export geographical structure”and explores its driving forces in depth.The research shows that the emergence of this phenomenon is an inevitable result of rapid adjustment of factor structure,continuous upgrading of industrial structure and corresponding changes in comparative advantages in China.This conclusion is still valid after controlling the impact of the factors such as Sino-US trade frictions,the global layout of multinational companies and the COVID-19 pandemic,and dealing with the endogenous problems by using instrumental variables.Further analysis reveals that the trade pattern between China and the developed countries is shifting towards intra-industry trade,and brand internationalization will increasingly become a key factor in China's trade with the developed countries.How the governments at all levels and the enterprises adapt to this new export situation and contribute to the high-quality development of the Chinese economy is a highly thought-provoking issue.

关 键 词：出口地理结构 动因分析 要素结构 产业结构 品牌国际化 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]