“冲击”还是“补充”:集体建设用地入市对地方政府土地财政的影响——基于双重差分模型的实证分析  

“Strike”or“Supplement”:The Impact of Collective Commercial Construction Land Marketization on Local Government’s Land Finance Based on An Empirical Analysis Using DID Model

作　　者：黄海燕 李景刚[1] 孙传谆[1] HUANG Haiyan;LI Jinggang;SUN Chuanzhun

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学公共管理学院,广州510642

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第9期68-85,共18页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学项目“城市更新模式选择对其实施绩效的影响机制研究:基于土地增值效益分配的中介效应”(编号:20YJA630031);广州市哲学社科规划2023年度课题“广州科学有序实施城市更新行动的创新路径——基于推拉理论的分析框架”(编号:2023GZYB38);华南农业大学省级大学生创新创业训练项目(编号:S202110564078);中国人民大学教育基金会林增杰土地科学发展基金优秀学术论文资助项目(编号:2023)。

摘　　要：集体经营性建设用地入市制度打破了土地一级市场的垄断,切实提高了农村集体收入,不过也引起人们对地方政府土地财政可持续性的担忧,因此,厘清和验证集体经营性建设用地入市对地方政府土地财政的影响就显得尤为必要。本文正是基于此视角,借助SCP分析范式,构建了“市场结构—市场行为—市场绩效”理论框架解析集体经营性建设用地入市对地方土地财政的影响机制,并借助DID模型评估了部分试点地区集体经营性建设用地入市制度对地方政府土地财政的冲击效应。结果表明:(1)集体经营性建设用地入市制度对地方政府土地财政确有一定的负向冲击效应,但不显著,考虑到内生性和样本选择偏差等问题,经安慰剂检验后,研究结果依旧稳健;(2)2005年广东省的入市先例并未造成其他试点地区的地方政府形成入市政策的预期效应;(3)集体经营性建设用地入市制度对地方政府土地财政的冲击受入市规模和入市比例的制约。因此,有必要重新审视集体经营性建设用地入市制度,把握集体土地入市节奏,增强地方债务透明度,实时监测地方债务规模与财政能力适配度,强化地方土地财政隐性风险防范能力,尤其是土地财政依赖性较强的地区,积极拓宽和多元化政府收入渠道,促进地方土地财政转型,降低对土地财政的依赖。Collective commercial construction land marketization has broken the monopoly of primary land market and effectively improved rural collective income,which has nevertheless raised concerns about the sustainability of local government land finance.It is particularly necessary to clarify the influence mechanism of collective commercial construction land marketiza⁃tion on local government land finance.From this perspective,the paper constructs a theoretical framework of“market structure-market behavior-market performance”to analyze the influence mechanism of collective commercial construction land marketization on local government land fi⁃nance by using SCP analysis paradigm.Therefore,the paper evaluates the influence of collective commercial construction land marketization on local government land finance with DID model by comparing pilot areas with non-pilot areas.The results are shown as follows:(1)Collective com⁃mercial construction land marketization has a non-significant effect on local government’s land fi⁃nance,considering the endogeneity and sample selection bias,the findings remain robust after the placebo test;(2)The precedent of collective commercial construction land marketization in Guang⁃dong Province in 2005 did not cause local governments in other pilot areas to form the expected effect of the collective commercial construction land marketization policy;(3)The impact of the collective commercial construction land marketization on local government land finance is con⁃strained by the scale of land marketization and the proportion of land marketization.Therefore,the policy of collective commercial construction land marketization should be re-examined,regulating the process of collective commercial construction land marketization,enhancing the transparency of local debt,monitoring the adequacy of local debt scale and fiscaling capacity in real time,strength⁃ening the ability to prevent hidden risks of local land finance,especially in areas with strong de⁃pendence on land finance,ac

关 键 词：集体经营性建设用地入市 土地财政 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济] F812