雷蒙·阿隆的尚武和平观评析  

Commentary on Raymond Aron’s View of“The Advocation of Force Leads to Peace”

作　　者：黄秋生 韦烨 

机构地区：[1]南华大学马克思主义学院

出　　处：《法语国家与地区研究（中法文）》2024年第4期31-41,共11页Etudes Francophones

基　　金：湖南省社科基金重大项目“中国式现代化道路的哲学研究”(2022ZDAM04);湖南省研究生科研创新一般项目“雷蒙·阿隆的历史规律论研究”(CX20240815)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：战略思想的创新历来是在新旧时代交汇之间产生的,而20世纪一个重要转折点就是热核武器的研发与应用。面对热核时代的国际复杂态势,雷蒙·阿隆从“尚武和平”的现实主义立场出发,创造性提出二战后世界局势“和平不可能,战争不大可能”的判断。在他看来,随着热核武器设施的不断强化以及意识形态所引导的联盟的建立,使战争毕其功于一役的战略条件日趋严苛,“不战不和”将成为常态。由于热核武器的威慑作用,各国不得不以“审慎”作为国家决策的基本原则,常规武器主导的局部战争将取代全面战争成为主要模式。但这不代表和平的希望完全消失,阿隆仍然探寻“战争终止”的道路,尽管其中一些思考是乌托邦式的,但他的理论提供了对战争与和平动态关系的新思考角度,特别是在当今世界战略格局和国际关系格局面临新的挑战和威胁时,阿隆的现实主义观点仍然具有启示意义。Innovations in strategic thinking have always occurred at the crossroads of old and new eras,and a major turning point in the twentieth century was the development and use of thermonuclear weapons.Given the complex international situation in the thermonuclear era,Raymond Aron,from the realist perspective of“martial arts and peace”creatively proposed the notion that“peace is impossible,but war is unlikely”in the post-World War II global landscape.In his view,with the continuous strengthening of thermonuclear weapons facilities and the establishment of ideologically guided alliances,the strategic conditions for the success of war are becoming increasingly stringent,and a state of“no war,no peace”will become the norm.The deterrent effect of thermonuclear weapons compels nations to adopt“prudence”as the basic principle in national decision-making,and localized wars waged with conventional weapons will replace total war as the primary mode of conflict.However,this does not mean that hope for peace has completely disappeared,and Aron still explores the path of“ending war”.Although some of his ideas are utopian,they offer new perspectives on the dynamic relationship between war and peace.In particular,Aron’s realist views remain instructive in light of the new challenges and threats facing the world’s strategic and international relations landscape today.

关 键 词：热核武器 尚武和平 审慎 雷蒙·阿隆 

分 类 号：D8[政治法律—政治学]