数字乡村建设对防返贫能力的影响及空间效应研究  

Research on the Impact and Spatial Effects of Digital VillagesConstruction on the Ability to Prevent Return to Poverty

作　　者：郭文强[1] 韦星羽 雷明[2,3,4] 张雯苹 Guo Wenqiang;Wei Xingyu;Lei Ming;Zhang Wenping

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学信息管理学院 [2]北京大学乡村振兴研究院 [3]北京大学光华管理学院 [4]新疆财经大学

出　　处：《经济研究参考》2024年第9期121-140,共20页Review of Economic Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目一般项目“边疆民族地区规模性返贫的防范与治理机制研究”(No.23XMZ060)。

摘　　要：防止规模性返贫是扎实推进乡村振兴的关键所在,数字乡村建设对提升农村防返贫能力具有重要意义。本文基于2016~2022年中国30个省(区、市)的面板数据,运用基于加速遗传算法的投影寻踪模型测度数字乡村建设水平与防返贫能力,通过核密度估计刻画两者的时空分异特征,利用空间杜宾模型深入分析数字乡村建设对防返贫能力的空间溢出效应。研究发现:2016~2022年,数字乡村建设水平与防返贫能力整体上在不断提高,数字乡村建设存在多极化趋势,防返贫能力两极化现象逐渐减弱。农村防返贫能力具有显著的空间聚集特征,主要表现为“高—高”和“低—低”聚集模式。空间杜宾溢出效应分解表明:数字乡村建设对防返贫有着显著的正向影响以及正的空间溢出效应。据此,对未来建设数字乡村提出相关建议,并探索出提升防返贫能力的新路径,未来可尝试从溢出边界进一步探索空间溢出效应。Preventing a large-scale return to poverty is the key to solidly promote rural revitalization,and the digital villages construction is of great significance in enhancing the ability of rural areas to prevent return to poverty.This paper is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2016 to 2022.A projection pursuit model based on accelerated genetic algorithm is used to measure the level of digital villages construction and the ability to prevent return to poverty.Gaussian kernel density estimation is used to characterize the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics of the two,and the spatial Durbin model is used to analyze the spatial spillover effect of digital villages construction on the ability to prevent return to poverty in depth.The paper found that from 2016 to 2022,the overall level of digital villages construction and the ability to prevent return to poverty have been continuously improving.There is a trend of multipolarity in digital villages construction,and the polarization of the ability to prevent return to poverty has gradually weakened.The ability of rural areas to prevent return to poverty has significant spatial clustering characteristics,mainly manifested as“high-high”and“low-low”clustering patterns.The decomposition of spatial Durbin spillover effects indicates that digital villages construction has a significant positive impact on preventing return to poverty and a positive spatial spillover effect.Based on this,relevant policy recommendations are proposed for future digital villages construction,and new paths to improve the ability to prevent return to poverty are explored.In the future,attempts can be made to further explore spatial spillover effects from the spillover boundary.

关 键 词：数字乡村 防返贫 投影寻踪模型 加速遗传算法 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济] F49