基于修正RBI和考虑多米诺效应的站场设备风险评价  

Risk assessment of station equipment based on modified RBI and considering domino effect

作　　者：张丽 刘飞 吕晓军 马宁 王婷婷 王子豪 ZHANG Li;LIU Fei;LYU Xiaojun;MA Ning;WANG Tingting;WANG Zihao(Bidding Center,Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu 062552,China;Hebei Gas Storage Branch of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Langfang 065000,China;No.5 Oil Production Plant of Huabei Oilfield Company,CNPC,Xinji 052360,China)

机构地区：[1]华北石油管理局有限公司招标中心,河北任丘062552 [2]中国石油华北油田河北储气库分公司,河北廊坊065000 [3]中国石油华北油田第五采油厂,河北辛集052360

出　　处：《石油工程建设》2024年第5期50-55,共6页Petroleum Engineering Construction

摘　　要：针对经典RBI理论在风险评价中的普适性差,计算后果区面积时未考虑多米诺效应引发的面积叠加等问题,根据实际设备故障历史数据的分布形式建立同类设备失效概率模型,结合多米诺效应和不同后果类型的损害范围核算事故升级后的设备损坏概率,并利用圆弧并面积算法实现后果区面积叠加核算,最后通过风险矩阵完成站内设备的分级定量评价。研究结果表明,通过K-S检验和拟合优度,双参数威布尔分布可较好地反映设备可靠性水平;脱乙烷塔重沸器发生事故后的后果区面积为1183.34 m^(2),不考虑多米诺效应的计算方法对后果区面积低估了30.7%,未消除重叠区域的计算方法对后果区面积高估了211.4%;设备风险评价结果与常规方法结果相比,增加了一个到两个等级。研究结果可为油气站场安全运营管理水平的提高提供实际参考。The classical RBI theory has poor universality in risk assessment,and neglects area overlapping and other problems caused by the domino effect in calculating the consequence area.Therefore,based on the distribution form of actual equipment failure data,this paper established a failure probability model of similar equipment and calculated the damage probability of equipment after the accident escalation by combining the domino effect and the damage scope of different consequence types.In addition,the calculation of the consequence overlapping area was realized by using the arc-area algorithm.Finally,the hierarchical and quantitative evaluation of the equipment in the station was completed by the risk matrix.The results show that the two-parameter Weibull distribution can effectively reflect the reliability of the equipment through the K-S test and goodness of fit.The actual consequence area of the deethanizer boiler accident is 1183.34 m^(2),the calculation method neglecting the domino effect underestimating it by 30.7%and the method without eliminating overlapping area overestimating it by 211.4%.The results of the equipment risk assessment increase by one to two grades compared with the results of conventional methods.The research results can provide a practical reference for the improvement of the safety operation management level of oil and gas stations.

关 键 词：RBI 多米诺 站场设备 风险 威布尔分布 后果区面积 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]