基于组合赋权优化蒙特卡罗法的滑坡失稳概率研究  

Study on Probability of Landslide Instability Based on Combination-Weighted Optimization Monte Carlo Method

作　　者：曹思源 张淼 张文松 袁颖 CAO Siyuan;ZHANG Miao;ZHANG Wensong;YUAN Ying(Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China;Hebei Center for Ecological and Environment Geology Research,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北省高校生态环境地质应用技术研发中心,河北石家庄050031

出　　处：《河北地质大学学报》2024年第5期50-58,共9页Journal of Hebei Geo University

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金项目(F2024403007);河北省教育厅科学研究项目(BJK2024090)。

摘　　要：为准确分析K156+200~+800滑坡的稳定状态,提出了基于组合赋权优化蒙特卡罗法的滑坡失稳概率计算分析方法。针对单一蒙特卡罗法在分析滑坡失稳概率时存在影响因子众多的问题,该分析方法首先利用AHP法和CRITIC法对选定的滑坡稳定性影响因子进行重要性分析,确定出影响因子的主客观权重,再利用最小相对信息熵原理对主客观权重进行组合权重计算,根据组合权重值的大小筛选出主导影响因子,最后运用蒙特卡罗法对主导影响因子进行随机抽取统计并计算滑坡加权失稳概率。该分析方法在避免了主客观权重单一赋权弊端的同时优化了蒙特卡罗法的不足,对权重赋权计算滑坡失稳概率以及合理评价滑坡稳定性方面提供了参考,具有一定指导意义。In order to accurately analyze the stability state of K156+200~+800 landslide,a method of calculating and analyzing landslide instability probability based on combinator-weighted optimization Monte Carlo method is proposed.Aiming at the problem that there are many influencing factors in the analysis of landslide instability probability by single Monte Carlo method,this analysis method first uses AHP and CRITIC method to analyze the importance of the selected influencing factors of landslide stability,determines the subjective and objective weights of the influencing factors,and then uses the principle of minimum relative information entropy to calculate the combined weights of subjective and objective weights.The leading influence factors are screened according to the combined weight values.Finally,Monte Carlo method is used to randomly extract statistics on the leading influence factors and calculate the weighted instability probability of landslides.This analysis method avoids the disadvantage of single weighting of subjective and objective weights and optimizes the shortcomings of Monte Carlo method.It provides reference for calculating the probability of landslide instability and evaluating the stability of landslide reasonably,and has certain guiding significance.

关 键 词：滑坡失稳概率 组合赋权 AHP法 CRITIC法 最小相对信息熵原理 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]