京津冀生态环境压力与科技创新能力关联特征  

Correlation Between Eco-environment Pressure and Sci-technology Innovation Ability in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

作　　者：陈义忠 张晓翠 姚澜 贺鹏明 于凯茹 李晶[3] CHEN Yizhong;ZHANG Xiaocui;YAO Lan;HE Pengming;YU Kairu;LI Jing(School of Economics and Management,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Development Research Center,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;School of Geography Science,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050010,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院,天津300401 [2]河北工业大学京津冀发展研究中心,天津300401 [3]河北师范大学地理科学学院,河北石家庄050010

出　　处：《环境科学与技术》2024年第9期225-236,共12页Environmental Science & Technology

基　　金：河北省优秀青年科学基金项目(D2024202007);2023年河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20230303009);河北师范大学科研基金项目(L2023K03)。

摘　　要：该文综合采用环境足迹理论、集成反演模型和BP神经网络模型评估京津冀城市群2000-2025年生态环境压力和科技创新能力时空演变特征,并探究两者的关联特征。结果表明:生态环境压力整体上呈现放缓趋势,高值区主要分布在西北部生态扩展区,低值区分布在中部核心功能区,碳压力是多数城市生态环境压力的主要来源。城市群2000-2015年科技创新能力具有较大空间差异,北京和天津对中部核心功能区具有明显拉动作用,而南部生态扩展区最低,其主要受限于邢台;城市群2016-2025年的科技创新能力空间异质性将有所缩小。生态环境压力与科技创新能力存在“倒U型”关系,生态环境压力拐点时间与水资源压力和碳压力相同(2012年),早于氮压力拐点时间(2014年);各省市碳压力EKC曲线中,天津(2009年)到达拐点时间早于河北(2013年),北京早已进入EKC后半段。城市群协同发展差异较大,北京和天津已进入良性循环发展阶段,而河北省却较为落后,但秦皇岛、唐山和邯郸有望在2025年进入良性循环阶段。The environmental footprint theory,ensemble inversion model and BP neural network model are used to assess the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of water-carbon-nitrogen footprints,eco-environment pressure and sci-technology innovation ability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration(BTHUA)from 2000 to 2025,and then explored the correlation between eco-environment pressure and sci-technology innovation ability in different spatial scales.Results show that the eco-environment pressure generally presents a decreased tendency.Its high-value areas are mainly distributed in the northwest ecological expansion area and the low-value areas are distributed in the central core functional areas.Carbon pressure is the main source of the eco-environment pressure of most cities.There is a large spatial difference in the sci-technology innovation ability of urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015.Beijing and Tianjin have a significant pulling effect on the central core functional area.The southern ecological expansion area(0.11)is the lowest,which is mainly limited by Xingtai.The spatial heterogeneity of sci-technology innovation ability in urban agglomeration will be reduced during the period from 2016 to 2025.There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between eco-environment pressure and sci-technology innovation ability.The inflection point of ecological environment pressure is the same as that of water resource pressure and carbon pressure(i.e.,the year of 2012),which is earlier than the inflection point of nitrogen pressure(i.e.,the year of 2014).In the EKC curve of all provinces and cities,the inflection point of Tianjin(i.e.,the year of 2009)is earlier than Hebei(i.e.,the year of 2013),and Beijing has already entered the second half of EKC.There are significant differences in coordinated development level within urban agglomeration.Beijing and Tianjin have entered a stage of virtuous cycle development,while Hebei Province is relatively backward.However,Qinhuangdao,Tangshan,and Handan are expected to enter

关 键 词：环境足迹 集成模拟 生态环境压力 科技创新能力 耦合特征 拐点 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]