互联网基础设施建设能否成为资本市场“避雷针”?  

Can the Development of Internet Infrastructure Act as a“Lighting Rod”for the Capital Market

作　　者：赵烁 陆瑶[2] 文灿 Zhao Shuo;Lu Yao;Wen Can

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084 [3]海通证券,上海200025

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2024年第10期69-79,共11页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范”(项目编号:20&ZD102);国家社会科学基金一般项目“提振民间投资的长效机制研究”(项目编号:19BJL065);中国人民银行委托国家高端智库项目“我国金融资产管理公司改革发展方向研究”(项目编号:2022WTJN0328);中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(项目编号:产业经济学-DF2023YS24)。

摘　　要：本文以“新基建”中的互联网建设为视角,基于我国沪深A股上市公司2009—2023年的面板数据,实证研究了“新基建”中互联网发展对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,互联网发展会显著降低股价崩盘风险。该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。渠道检验发现,互联网发展可以显著降低资本市场中的信息不对称,从增加股价信息含量、提高股票流动性、促进公司使用新兴媒介等多个维度,降低股价崩盘风险。异质性检验发现,互联网发展对股价崩盘风险的影响在机构投资者持股比例较低、地处东部省份的上市公司中更显著。本文为积极推动互联网信息技术发展和防范资本市场风险提供了理论依据。From the perspective of the development of internet infrastructure in the context of“New Infrastructure,”this paper empirically studies the impact of internet development in“New Infrastructure”on stock price crash risk,based on the panel data of the A-share listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2009 to 2023.The research finds that the development of the internet can significantly reduce stock price crash risk.The conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests.The channel test finds that internet development can significantly reduce information asymmetry in the capital market,mitigating stock price crash risk from several aspects including increasing the information content of stock prices,improving stock liquidity,and promoting the use of emerging media by companies.The heterogeneity analysis finds that the impact of internet development on stock price crash risk is more pronounced in listed companies with a lower proportion of institutional ownership and those located in eastern provinces.The paper provides a theoretical bias for actively promoting the development of internet information technology and preventing capital market risks.

关 键 词：新基建 互联网 股价崩盘风险 信息不对称 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]