河库及蓄滞洪区洪水预报调度一体化技术研究  

Research on integrated technology of flood forecasting and dispatching in rivers,reservoirs and flood diversion and storage areas

作　　者：曾明 张晓皓 纪国良 许银山 张涛 ZENG Ming;ZHANG Xiaohao;JI Guoliang;XU Yinshan;ZHANG Tao(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Center of Technology Innovation for Intelligent Water Simulation,Forecasting and Operation of the River Basin of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Innovation Team for Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention of Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]长江水利委员会流域水模拟与预报调度智能技术创新中心,湖北武汉430010 [3]长江水利委员会水旱灾害防御创新团队,湖北武汉430010 [4]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《人民长江》2024年第10期48-54,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002701);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(0704189);水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022011);湖南省水利科技项目(XSKJ2023059-05)。

摘　　要：针对河库及蓄滞洪区洪水预报调度一体化技术薄弱,尤其面临大洪水调度决策难以实时联动模拟的问题,从空间拓扑概化、通用化模型库构建及方案数字化、调度规则库构建和智能应用3个方面介绍了预报调度一体化体统构建的流程和要点,并基于大湖演算模型和水力学模型提出了可考虑蓄滞洪区的通用性预报模型,以及水库库区水面线预报模拟模型方法,通过空间拓扑概化和调度策略设置可实现河、库、蓄滞洪区的上下游联动模拟计算。以长江流域三峡水库、中下游河湖及蓄滞洪区为研究区域,重点阐述了改进模型构建、预报调度一体化体系构建、模拟调度技术应用等环节,形成了长江中下游水工程联合调度的体系方案,并通过设置预演洪水场景,分析了模拟的效果和合理性。研究成果可为涉及多类复杂水工程联合调度的区域提供技术参考,为长江流域水工程实时预报调度和场景推演提供计算工具和决策依据。In response to the weak integration technology of flood forecasting and scheduling in rivers,reservoirs and detention and retention basins,especially the difficulties in real-time linkage simulation facing large-scale flood scheduling decision-making,we elaborated on the process and key points of constructing an integrated forecasting and scheduling system from three aspects:spatial topology generalization,construction of a generalized model library,and construction of a digital scheduling rule library and intelligent calling.We proposed a universal forecasting model that can consider detention and retention basins based on the Great Lake routing model and hydraulic model.The simulation model method for water surface profile forecasting in reservoir areas was introduced.We also introduced the method of simulating the upstream and downstream linkage of rivers,reservoirs,and detention and retention basins through spatial topology generalization and scheduling strategy setting.We took the Three Gorges Reservoir,middle and lower reaches of rivers and lakes,and detention and retention basins in Changjiang River as the research areas,explained the improvement of model construction,the construction of integrated forecasting and scheduling system,and the application of simulation scheduling technology.Based on these factors,a system scheme for joint scheduling of water engineering in the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River has been formed.Then,by setting up a simulated flood scene,the effectiveness and rationality of the simulation were analyzed.The results can provide technical references for regions involving joint scheduling of multiple complex water projects,and provide computational tools and decision-making basis for real-time forecasting and scheduling of water projects in Changjiang River Basin and scenario deduction.

关 键 词：水文预报 预报调度一体化体系 大湖演算模型 水力学模型 水库群联合调度 蓄滞洪区 长江流域 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]