基于蒙特卡洛模拟的装备维修项目风险评估方法分析  

Analysis on Risk Assessment Method of Equipment Maintenance Project Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：康欣林 孙胜祥 成慧娇 宋飞鹏 黄平安 KANG Xinin;SUN Shengxiang;CHENG Huijiao;SONG Feipeng;HUANG Pingan(Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033;No.91515 Troops of PLA,Sanya 572000;No.722 Research Institue of China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited,Wuhan 430200)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033 [2]中国人民解放军91515部队,三亚572000 [3]中国船舶集团有限公司第七二二研究所,武汉430200

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2024年第8期98-102,共5页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：随着装备维修风险影响日益引起人们重视,如何快速、有效地开展风险评估成为时下研究热点之一。蒙特卡洛法可通过构建模型,生成随机数(伪随机数),运用计算机模拟抽样来获取近似解,在风险评价上有普遍适用性。在装备维修项目中,采用以数学指标法为基础、蒙特卡洛仿真为辅的风险评价方法,通过运用Excel计算公式,可以有效实现蒙特卡罗模拟,得出比较合理的仿真结果,从而为项目管理者风险决策提供更加准确、直观的参考信息。With the increasing attention to the impact of equipment maintenance risk,how to quickly and effectively carry out risk assessment has become one of the research hotspots.Monte Carlo method can build a model,generate random numbers(pseudo-random numbers),and obtain approximate solutions by computer simulation sampling.It has universal applicability in risk assess-ment.In the equipment maintenance project,the risk assessment method based on mathematical index method and supplemented by Monte Carlo simulation can be effectively realized through the use of Excel calculation formula,and more reasonable simulation re-sults can be obtained,so as to provide more accurate and intuitive reference information for project managers to make risk decisions.

关 键 词：装备维修 项目风险评估 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：TP301.6[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]