Modeling measles transmission in adults and children:Implications to vaccination for eradication  

作　　者：Anjana Pokharel Khagendra Adhikari Ramesh Gautam Kedar Nath Uprety Naveen K.Vaidya 

机构地区：[1]Padma Kanya Multiple Campus,Tribhuvan University,Kathmandu,Nepal [2]Mathematical Biology Research Center,Kathmandu,Nepal [3]Amrit Campus,Tribhuvan University,Kathmandu,Nepal [4]Ratna Rajya Laxmi Campus,Tribhuvan University,Kathmandu,Nepal [5]Central Department of Mathematics,Tribhuvan University,Kathmandu,Nepal [6]Department of Mathematics and Statistics,San Diego State University,San Diego,CA,USA [7]Computational Science Research Center,San Diego State University,San Diego,CA,USA [8]Viral Information Institute,San Diego State University,San Diego,CA,USA

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第4期1007-1026,共20页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：supported by the GRAID(Graduate Research Assistantships in Developing Countries)awards from the International Mathematical Union(IMU);the University Grants Commission(UGC),Sanothimi Bhaktapur,Nepal,for the Small Research and Development and Innovation Grants-077/078(SRDIG)award;the Nepal Academy of Science and Technology(NAST)for Ph.D.Fellowship;the University Grants Commission(UGC)Nepal for Ph.D.Fellowship 2021;supported by NSF grants DMS-1951793 and DEB-2030479 from the National Science Foundation of USA;UGP award from San Diego State University.

摘　　要：Despite the availability of successful vaccines,measles outbreaks have occurred frequently in recent years,presumably due to the lack of proper vaccination implementation.Moreover,measles cases in adult groups,albeit small in number,indicate that the previously neglected adult group may need to be brought into vaccine coverage to achieve WHO's goal of measles eradication from the globe.In this study,we develop a novel transmission dynamics model to describe measles cases in adults and children to evaluate the role of adult infection in persistent measles cases and vaccination programs for eradication.Analysis of our model,validated by measles cases from outbreaks in Nepal,provides the vaccination reproduction number(conditions for measles eradication or persistence)and the role of contact network size.Our results highlight that while children are primary targets for measles outbreaks,a small number of infections in adults may act as a reservoir for measles,causing obstacles to eradication.Furthermore,our model analysis shows that while impactful controls can be achieved by children-focused vaccines,a combined adult-child vaccination program may help assert eradication of the disease.

关 键 词：Measles eradication Measles reservoir Adult-child vaccination Adults and children groups Nepal 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学] R511.1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]