Modeling and investigating malaria P.Falciparum and P.Vivax infections:Application to Djibouti data  

作　　者：Yahyeh Souleiman Liban Ismail Raluca Eftimie 

机构地区：[1]Centre de Recherche en Mathematiques et Numerique(CRMN),University of the Djibouti,Campus Balbala,Djibouti [2]Laboratoire Mathematiques de Besançon(LMB),University of Bourgogne Franche-Comte,Besancon,France

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第4期1095-1116,共22页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：funded by CEALT(Centre d’Excellence Africain en Logistique et Transport)of the University of Djibouti;CEALT for their financial support;support from the MODCOV19 platform of the National Institute of Mathematical Sciences and their Interactions,(CNRS).

摘　　要：Malaria is an infectious and communicable disease,caused by one or more species of Plasmodium parasites.There are five species of parasites responsible for malaria in humans,of which two,Plasmodium Falciparum and Plasmodium Vivax,are the most dangerous.In Djibouti,the two species of Plasmodium are present in different proportions in the infected population:77%of P.Falciparum and 33%of P.Vivax.In this study we present a new mathematical model describing the temporal dynamics of Plasmodium Falciparum and Plasmodium Vivax co-infection.We focus briefly on the well posedness of this model and on the calculation of the basic reproductive numbers for the infections with each Plasmodium species that help us understand the long-term dynamics of this model(i.e.,existence and stability of various eqiuilibria).Then we use computational approaches to:(a)identify model parameters using real data on malaria infections in Djibouti;(b)illustrate the influence of different estimated parameters on the basic reproduction numbers;(c)perform global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the impact of various model parameters on the transient dynamics of infectious mosquitoes and infected humans,for infections with each of the Plasmodium species.The originality of this research stems from employing the FAST method and the LHS method to identify the key factors influencing the progression of the disease within the population of Djibouti.In addition,sensitivity analysis identified the most influential parameter for Falciparium and Vivax reproduction rates.Finally,the uncertainty analysis enabled us to understand the variability of certain parameters on the infected compartments.

关 键 词：Falciparum and vivax models Reproduction number Stability analysis Sensitivity analysis FAST method LHS method Djibouti data 

分 类 号：R531.3[医药卫生—内科学]