Trends and multi-model prediction of hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen  

作　　者：Ruixin Zhang Hongfei Mi Tingjuan He Shuhao Ren Renyan Zhang Liansheng Xu Mingzhai Wang Chenghao Su 

机构地区：[1]School of Public Health,Xiamen University,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [2]Department of Public Health,Zhongshan Hospital(Xiamen),Fudan University,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [3]Department of Endemic Disease and Chronic Non-communicable Disease Prevention and Control,Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China [4]Department of Occupational Health and Poison Control,Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen City,Fujian Province,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第4期1276-1288,共13页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：funded by Xiamen Medical and Health Key Project[grant numbers 3502Z20191105].

摘　　要：Background:This study aims to analyze the trend of Hepatitis B incidence in Xiamen City from 2004 to 2022,and to select the best-performing model for predicting the number of Hepatitis B cases from 2023 to 2027.Methods:Data were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention(CISDCP).The Joinpoint Regression Model analyzed temporal trends,while the Age-Period-Cohort(APC)model assessed the effects of age,period,and cohort on hepatitis B incidence rates.We also compared the predictive performance of the Neural Network Autoregressive(NNAR)Model,Bayesian Structural Time Series(BSTS)Model,Prophet,Exponential Smoothing(ETS)Model,Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)Model,and Hybrid Model,selecting the model with the highest performance to forecast the number of hepatitis B cases for the next five years.Results:Hepatitis B incidence rates in Xiamen from 2004 to 2022 showed an overall declining trend,with rates higher in men than in women.Higher incidence rates were observed in adults,particularly in the 30-39 age group.Moreover,the period and cohort effects on incidence showed a declining trend.Furthermore,in the best-performing NNAR(10,1,6)[12]model,the number of new cases is predicted to be 4271 in 2023,increasing to 5314 by 2027.

关 键 词：Hepatitis B Temporal trends PREDICTION Joinpoint regression model Age-period-cohort model Neural network autoregressive model 

分 类 号：R512.62[医药卫生—内科学]