2024年中国农业经济形势分析与未来10年展望  

Analysis of China's Agricultural Economic Situation in 2024 and Outlook for the Next Decade

作　　者：王禹[1] 王盛威[1] 许世卫[1] 富丽莎 李干琼[1] Wang Yu;Wang Shengwei;Xu Shiwei;Fu Lisha;Li Ganqiong(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese A cademy of Agricultural Sciences,Research Center of Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning Engineering Technologies of Beijing,Key Open Laboratory of Intelligent Agricultural Early Warning Technologies and Systems,Key Laboratory of Agricultural Information Service Technology of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/北京市农业监测预警工程技术研究中心/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室/农业农村部农业信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2024年第8期37-43,共7页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：中国农业科学院农业信息研究所2024年度科技创新工程任务书(CAAS-ASTIP-2024-AII);2022年中国农业科学院农业信息研究所公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金(JBYW-AII-2022-04);中央农办农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题(0123043);国家重点研发计划课题“全国粮食生产综合智能化大数据平台研发及应用示范”(课题编号:2023YFD2000105)。

摘　　要：对中国农业经济形势的准确分析是判断当前和未来一段时间农业发展趋势、农产品供求关系的重要基础。本研究通过查阅文献资料和会商调研,重点分析国内外经济发展情况和人口变化情况、中国城镇化水平、城乡居民收入和消费价格、人民币汇率等宏观经济社会条件,详细分析当前及未来一段时期高标准农田建设、水资源、农业科技和农业政策等农业生产条件,并从生产、消费、贸易和价格4个方面对2024年及未来10年中国农产品供需形势进行分析和展望。宏观经济社会方面,当前及未来一段时间,中国的经济持续复苏将助力“三农”高质量发展,城镇化率不断提高,农业就业人口下降,但城乡居民收入快速增长且差距继续缩小,人民币汇率和居民消费价格将平稳运行。农业生产条件方面,未来中国还将严守耕地红线,保障耕地量质齐增,节水灌溉面积将进一步扩大,利用效率不断提升,科技助力农业生产效率效益不断提高,政策也将持续支撑加快农业强国建设。未来10年,生产方面,中国将进一步构建多元化的食物供给体系,强化“藏粮于地、藏粮于技”物质基础,实施千亿斤粮食产能提升行动,促进粮食生产体系的绿色转型,鼓励粮食减损和食物节约,全面保障粮食和重要农产品的稳产保供;消费方面,中国将充分考虑中长期城乡居民食物消费需求变化趋势,践行大食物观理念,不断优化农产品消费结构,更加注重食物多样,平衡膳食;贸易方面,随着中国农产品提质增效,国际竞争力将不断增强,农产品贸易规模不断扩大;价格方面,中国农产品市场价格形成机制将不断完善,通过收储、生产布局、上市节奏等调节,农产品产销对接能力将大幅提升,国内大宗农产品市场价格整体可控。Accurate analysis of China's agricultural economic situation is an important basis for judging the current and future agricultural development trends and the supply and demand relationship of agricultural products.By reviewing literature and conducting consultations and surveys,this article focused on domestic and foreign economic development and population changes,China's urbanization level,urban and rural residents'income and consumer prices,renminbi exchange rate and other macroeconomic and social conditions,and analyzed in detail the agricultural production conditions such as high-standard farmland construction,water resources,agricultural science and technology,and agricultural policies currently and in the future period.It also analyzed and forecasted the supply and demand situation of China's agricultural products in 2024 and the next 10 years from the four aspects of production,consumption,trade,and price.In terms of macroeconomic and social aspects,China's continued economic recovery at present and in the future will promote the high-quality development of agriculture,rural areas and farmers.The urbanization rate will continue to increase and the agricultural employment population decreases.However,the income of urban and rural residents will grow rapidly and the gap will continue to narrow.The renminbi exchange rate and consumer prices will run smoothly.In terms of agricultural production conditions,in the future,China will strictly adhere to the red line of cultivated land to ensure increasing the quantity and quality of cultivated land.The area of water-saving irrigation will be further expanded,and the utilization efficiency will continue to improve.Science and technology will help agricultural production efficiency and benefits continue to improve,and policies will continue to support the acceleration of agricultural power construction.In the next 10 years,in terms of production,China will further build a diversified food supply system,strengthen the material foundation of a strategy of sustainable

关 键 词：农业经济 中国 宏观经济 农业生产形势 农产品供需 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]