省域经济参与国内大循环水平评价及演化研究  

A Study of the Evaluation and Evolution of Provincial Economy Participating in the Domestic Economic Circulation

作　　者：江小国 许薇薇 JIANG Xiaoguo;XU Weiwei(School of Business,Anhui University of Technology,Ma’anshan 243032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学商学院,安徽马鞍山243032

出　　处：《经济论坛》2024年第10期37-50,共14页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“畅通国内大循环的系统逻辑、内生动力与实现路径研究”(23BJL073);安徽省社科规划重点项目“畅通国内大循环的理论逻辑与实现路径研究”(AHSKZ2022D08)。

摘　　要：基于我国2013—2022年省级面板数据,采用熵权TOPSIS法从供需、要素、产业链、空间四个维度综合评价我国各省域经济参与国内大循环水平,使用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计方法和空间马尔可夫链方法分析其时空演化特征。研究发现:我国省域经济参与国内大循环水平总体上保持增长态势和非均衡分布格局,但不存在分化趋势;我国省域经济参与国内大循环水平存在俱乐部趋同效应,低参与水平地区和高参与水平地区分别较易形成“低水平陷阱”和“高水平垄断”现象;高参与水平地区对邻域存在正向影响,低参与水平地区对邻域无明显影响。据此,提出畅通国内大循环政策建议。This paper employs the Entropy and TOPSIS methodologies to comprehensively assess the level of provincial economy participating in the domestic economic circulation by utilizing the provincial panel data span-ning from 2013 to 2022 in China from the four dimensions of supply and demand,elements,industrial chains and space.Additionally,it utilizes the Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation,and spatial Markov chain ap-proaches to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of this participation.The key findings are summa-rized as follows:The level of provincial economy participating in the domestic economic circulation exhibits a growth trend and a non-equilibrium distribution pattern,but there is no trend towards differentiation;a club convergence ef-fect is observable in the level of provincial economy participating in the domestic economic circulation,namely,those provinces with low-level participation tend to cluster in“low-level traps”while those with high-level par-ticipation tend to form“high-level monopolies”;regions boasting high levels of participation exert positive spill-over effects on their neighboring regions,while those with low levels of participation exert insignificant impacts on their geographical neighbors.Finally,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for promoting smooth domestic circulation.

关 键 词：省域经济 国内大循环 熵权TOPSIS法 Dagum基尼系数 核密度估计 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]