联合大气角动量函数的VAR模型用于日长变化实时快速预报  

On the Real-time Prediction of the Variations of Length of Day by the Vector Autoregressive Model Combined with Atmospheric Angular Momentum

作　　者：张昊 刘辉 ZHANG Hao;LIU Hui(Zhengzhou Zhengfang Surveying and Mapping Co.Ltd,Zhengzhou 450006,China;College of Surveying and GeoInformatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450045,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州郑房测绘有限责任公司,河南郑州450006 [2]华北水利水电大学测绘与地理信息学院,河南郑州450045

出　　处：《测绘科学技术学报》2024年第4期343-347,共5页Journal of Geomatics Science and Technology

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目(212102310052)

摘　　要：日长变化的实时快速预报具有重要的实用价值和科学研究意义,大气角动量函数的轴向分量与日长变化有强相关性,传统预报方法对日常变化的实时快速预报精度不高。经过实验分析,联合大气角动量的向量自回归模型对日长变化进行实时快速预报方法,相对于传统的预报模型,预报精度显著提高。Real-time prediction of the variations of length of day(LOD)is of great importance in both scientific issues and practical applications.There is a strong correlation between the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum function and the variations of length of day.Traditional forecasting methods have low accuracy in real-time forecasting of length of day.After experimental analysis,it is found that the vector autoregressive model combined with atmospheric angular momentum significantly improves the accuracy of real-time forecasting of length of day compared to traditional forecasting models.

关 键 词：日长变化 大气角动量 向量自回归模型 实时快速预报 精度提高 

分 类 号：P227[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]