石家庄市非适宜气温对居民急救影响归因分析  

Attributable risk analysis of the impact of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches in Shijiazhuang city–based on the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)

作　　者：杜茜茜 曲玥 曾芳婷 陈凤格 关茗洋[2,3] DU Xixi;QU Yue;ZENG Fangting;CHEN Fengge;GUAN Mingyang(School of Public Health,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210,China;Department of Public Health Monitoring and Assessment,Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shijiazhuang 050011,China;Environment and Health Research Base of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention(Shijiazhuang),Shijiazhuang 050011,China)

机构地区：[1]华北理工大学公共卫生学院,唐山063210 [2]石家庄市疾病预防控制中心公共卫生监测与评价所,石家庄050011 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康研究基地(石家庄),石家庄050011

出　　处：《中国公共卫生》2024年第8期991-996,共6页Chinese Journal of Public Health

基　　金：河北省医学科学研究课题计划(20240228)。

摘　　要：目的评估河北省石家庄市非适宜气温造成的人群急救归因风险。方法收集2014年1月1日—2020年12月31日石家庄市的气象数据、大气污染物数据以及居民急救个案资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),定量评估非适宜气温造成的归因风险(AF)。结果2014年1月1日—2020年12月31日共收集石家庄市非意外急救人数293236例,气温与非意外急救的累积暴露–反应关系呈“V”型,由非适宜气温造成的非意外急救AF为8.71%(95%CI=–1.76%~17.70%)。分段情况下,非适宜气温对居民急救的影响以低温为主,由强低温造成的非意外急救AF为3.09%(95%CI=0.55%~5.18%)。分层分析发现,男性更容易受低温的影响,而女性和≥65岁人群对高温更敏感。结论高温和低温均可导致居民急救风险的增加,低温的归因风险更大,且男性对低温更敏感。Objective Evaluation of the attributable risk of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches in Shijiazhuang city,Hebei province.Methods Meteorological data,air pollutant data,and individual emergency ambulance dispatch records from January 1,2014 to December 31,2020 in Shijiazhuang city were collected.The distributed lag non-linear model was used to quantitatively assess the attributable fraction(AF)of emergency ambulance dispatches caused by unsuitable temperature.Results A total of 293236 non-accidental emergency ambulanc e dispatches were collected in Shijiazhuang city from January 1,2014 to December 31,2020.The cumulative exposureresponse relationship between temperature and non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches was"V"–shaped.The AF of non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches caused by unsuitable temperature was 8.71%(95%CI:–1.76%–17.70%).When stratified,the impact of unsuitable temperature on emergency ambulance dispatches was mainly due to low temperature,with the AF of non-accidental emergency ambulance dispatches caused by extreme low temperature being 3.09%(95%CI:0.55%–5.18%).Stratified analysis found that males were more susceptible to low temperature,while females and individuals aged≥65 years old were more sensitive to high temperature.Conclusion Both high and low temperatures can increase the risk of emergency ambulance dispatches,with low temperature having a greater attributable risk.Males are more sensitive to low temperature.

关 键 词：非适宜气温 分布滞后非线性模型 归因风险 急救 石家庄市 

分 类 号：R122.21[医药卫生—环境卫生学]