基于多区域投入产出的黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及结构分解  

Spatial⁃temporal pattern and structural decomposition of trade⁃embodied carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin based on multi⁃regional input⁃output analysis

作　　者：吴乐英[1,2,3] 赵义义 苗长虹 杜锦[2,3] WU Leying;ZHAO Yiyi;MIAO Changhong;DU Jin(Laboratory of Climate Change Mitigation and Carbon Neutrality,Henan University,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development,Henan University,Kaifeng 475001,China;Henan Urban Planning and Design Research Institute Limited Company,Zhengzhou 450044,China)

机构地区：[1]河南大学应对气候变化与碳中和实验室,郑州450046 [2]河南大学黄河文明与可持续发展研究中心,开封475001 [3]河南省城乡规划设计研究总院股份有限公司,郑州450044

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第19期8737-8750,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41901239);2024年河南省重点研发与推广专项科技攻关(242102321110);河南省优秀青年科学基金项目(222300420030);2025年度河南省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目(2025⁃ZZJH⁃152)。

摘　　要：厘清黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放时空格局及其驱动因素,对于制定公平有效的减排方案,实现区域合作减排的重要目标至关重要。利用多区域投入产出模型深入研究2007—2017年黄河流域9个省区贸易隐含碳排放的构成,以及其在省级和行业层面的转移路径;通过结构分解方法,追踪黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放区域内外的影响因素,揭示其区域内外影响因素的异质性。结果表明:黄河流域整体呈净贸易隐含碳转出区域,主要由中间投入的贸易方式进入其他各省的生产需求时导致。该流域的生产供应和整体需求正向中西部和东北地区转移,而对东南沿海省份的供应和需求正逐渐减少。区域外的最终需求和本地的碳排放强度是影响转出贸易隐含碳的主要因素,区域内的最终需求和区域外的碳排放强度是影响转入贸易隐含碳的主要因素。此外,生产结构和最终需求是影响黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放的关键因素,前者对黄河流域贸易隐含碳排放起抑制作用,后者则主要起驱动作用。It is crucial to elucidate the spatiotemporal pattern and driving factors of trade-related carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin for formulating fair and effective emission reduction strategies and achieving the important goal of regional cooperation in emission reduction.This study utilizes a multi-regional input-output model to conduct an in-depth investigation into the composition of trade-related carbon emissions across nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin over a long period from 2007 to 2017,as well as the transfer pathways of these emissions at both provincial and industry levels.Through structural decomposition analysis,it tracks the influencing factors of trade-related carbon emissions within and outside the Yellow River Basin,revealing the heterogeneity of these factors.The results demonstrate that the overall carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin at the production end exceed those at the consumption end,resulting in a net outflow of trade-related carbon emissions.This outflow is primarily driven by the trade of intermediate inputs meeting production demands in other provinces.The region′s production supply and overall demand are shifting towards the central and western regions and the northeast,while decreasing towards southeastern coastal provinces and increasing towards the central and western regions and the northeast.Industries with a net outflow of trade-related carbon emissions are concentrated in mining and quarrying,petroleum and chemical industries,non-metallic mineral products,electricity,heat,gas,and water production and supply,as well as transportation,warehousing,and postal services.These emissions predominantly flow into energy-intensive and capital-intensive industries.Structural decomposition analysis reveals that external final demand and local carbon intensity are the main factors affecting the outflow of trade-related carbon emissions,while internal final demand and external carbon intensity are the main factors affecting the inflow of trade-related carbon emissions.Ad

关 键 词：黄河流域 多区域投入产出模型 贸易隐含碳排放 结构分解 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]