Dynamic evolution of an SVEIR model with variants and non-pharmaceutical interventions for controlling COVID-19  

作　　者：Ruiyang Zhou Shaojian Cai Guangmin Chen Senzhong Huang Zhen Jin Zhihang Peng Weichuan Lin Fengying Wei Kuicheng Zheng 

机构地区：[1]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,Fujian,China [2]Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou 350012,Fujian,China [3]School of Statistics and Data Science,ZhiYing Research Center for Health Data,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China [4]Complex Systems Research Center,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China [5]Department of Biostatistics,School of Public Health,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing 211166,Jiangsu,China [6]School of Mathematics and Statistics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,Fujian,China [7]Center for Applied Mathematics of Fujian Province,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,Fujian,China [8]Key Laboratory of Operations Research and Control of Universities in Fujian,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou 350116,Fujian,China [9]Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research,Fuzhou 350001,Fujian,China [10]Teaching Base of the School of Public Health of Fujian Medical University,Fuzhou 350001,Fujian,China

出　　处：《Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity》2024年第2期67-75,共9页生物安全和生物安保杂志（英文）

基　　金：supported by Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2022-JB-06);supported by Special Projects of the Central Government Guiding Local Science and Technology Development(2021L3018);supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian ProvinceProvince of China(2021J01621);supported by Fujian Science and Technology Innovation Platform Construction Project(2019Y2001);Health Science and Technology Project of Fujian Province(2020GGB019).

摘　　要：The epidemiological characteristics and distributions of two epidemics in Fujian Province of Southeast China were attributed to the complex interactions among variant,host,and non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPIs).All reported cases in the Putian epidemic(September 8–October 2,2021,Delta variant B.1.617.2)and Fuzhou epidemic(October 22–November 18,2022,Omicron variant BA.5.2)were classified by sex,age group,occupation,and location in this study.Using surveillance data from the Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,we established a virus-oriented SVEIR(Susceptible–Vaccinated–Exposed–Infected–Recovered)model to investigate the dynamic evolution features of these two variants and the effects of NPIs.The optimal simulations were carried out with variants and scenario investigations.The scenario investigations showed that NPIs significantly reduced the transmission risk and infection scales of COVID-19,and that the Omicron variant was more infectious than the Delta variant.Moreover,the dynamic investigations revealed the increasing tendencies from Delta to Omicron,such as the basic reproduction number,infection rate,percentage of high-risk cases,and the growth rate.Decreasing tendencies were also identified,such as the average recovery period,the awareness delay,and the percentage of symptomatic cases.This study highlighted that NPIs played critical roles in successfully containing the two epidemics.Such interventions are strongly recommended to public health policymakers.

关 键 词：COVID-19 SVEIR model Transmission dynamics Non-pharmaceutical interventions Delta variant Omicron variant 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]