Stability analysis of a fractional-order monkeypox epidemic model with quarantine and hospitalization  

作　　者：Raqqasyi R.Musafir Agus Suryanto Isnani Darti Trisilowati 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences,University of Brawijaya,Jl.Veteran,Malang 65145,Indonesia

出　　处：《Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity》2024年第1期34-50,共17页生物安全和生物安保杂志（英文）

基　　金：funded by Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science(FMIPA)through Public Funds DPA(Dokumen Pelaksanaan Anggaran)PTNBH(Perguruan Tinggi Negeri Berbadan Hukum)University of Brawijaya and based on FMIPA Professor Grant,with contract number:4158.15/UN10.

摘　　要：The monkeypox epidemic has become a global health issue due to its rapid transmission involving nonhuman-to-human transmission in nonendemic areas.Various actions,such as quarantine,vaccination,and hospitalization,have been implemented by worldwide governments.Given the relatively high cost and strict implementation of vaccination,our focus lies on quarantine and hospitalization.In this paper,we study the monkeypox epidemic involving quarantine and hospitalization through fractionalorder mathematical modeling.The proposed model considers six classes of human populations(susceptible,exposed,infected,quarantined,hospitalized,and recovered)and three classes of nonhuman populations(susceptible,exposed,and infected).The basic properties of the model have been investigated,and its equilibrium points have been obtained,namely monkeypox-free,nonhuman-free endemic,and endemic.We have derived the basic reproduction numbers for human-to-human and nonhuman-tononhuman transmissions,denoted as R0h and R0n respectively.The existence and stability(both locally and globally)of each equilibrium point depend on R0h and R0n relative to unity.We performed calibration and forecasting of the model on the weekly monkeypox case data of the human population in the United States of America from June 1 to September 23,2022.Research findings indicate that the fractional-order model shows better calibration and forecasting compared to the corresponding firstorder model based on the root mean square error.Furthermore,the best-fitting model calibration indicates R0=maxfR0h;R0ng>1,suggesting the potential for endemic conditions in humans.However,the best forecasting shows R0<1,possibly due to various policies such as vaccination.Given the relative cost and stringency of vaccination implementation for monkeypox control,we perform numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses on the basic reproduction number,particularly focusing on the impact of quarantine and hospitalization rates.Simulations and sensitivity analysis indicate that simultaneous

关 键 词：Fractional-order model MONKEYPOX Stability analysis QUARANTINE HOSPITALIZATION 

分 类 号：R511[医药卫生—内科学]