太行山地区1973—2022年暴雨时空演变特征分析  

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variations in Heavy Rainfall Events in the Taihang Moutainous Region from 1973 to 2022

作　　者：唐倩玉 李远航 胡孟然 张基恒 李华勇 傅志远 黄上玉 李依霖 TANG Qianyu;LI Yuanhang;HU Mengran;ZHANG Jiheng;LI Huayong;FU Zhiyuan;HUANG Shangyu;LI Yilin(College of Resources,Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang 455000,China;Anyang Meteorological Bureau,Anyang National Climate Observatory,Anyang 455000,China)

机构地区：[1]安阳师范学院资源环境与旅游学院,河南安阳455000 [2]安阳市气象局安阳国家气候观象台,河南安阳455000

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期524-531,共8页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41807447);安阳国家气候观象台开放研究基金项目(AYNCOF202311);河南省科技攻关项目(242102320016;232102321109);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(24A170003);河南兴文化工程文化研究专项项目(2023XWH020)。

摘　　要：基于太行山地区13个气象站点50 a的逐日降水数据,使用Mann-Kendall突变检验、信噪比检验、Sen’s斜率估计、小波分析法、正交函数分解等方法,对太行山地区的暴雨时空演变规律进行了研究。结果表明:(1)太行山地区年暴雨量波动幅度较大,根据拟合斜率和Sen’s斜率估计法的结果可知,太行山地区的暴雨量将会呈增多趋势;(2)Mann-Kendall突变检验和信噪比检验结果表明,2006年太行山暴雨量发生了由少变多的突变;(3)Morlet小波分析结果表明,在2017—2020间研究区暴雨量存在2~3 a的周期尺度变换;(4)该地区暴雨量经验正交函数(EOF)展开的前两个模态显示,暴雨量呈现全区一致变化以及西南—东北向的空间变化特征,这两个模态情境下的暴雨状况受到环流因子和地形的共同影响。Based on the daily precipitation data from 13 meteorological stations in the Taihang moutainous region(TMR)spanning 50 a period,various methods such as the Mann-Kendall abrupt change test,the signal-to-noise ratio test,the Sen’s slope estimator,the wavelet analysis and the empirical orthogonal function decomposition,were applied to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of heavy rainfall events in the TMR.The findings revealed:(1)Heavy rainfall in the TMR showed the substantial fluctuation.According to the fitted slope and Sen’s slope estimation method,it was suggested that heavy rainfall in this region would experience an increasing trend in the future.(2)The Mann-Kendall abrupt change test and signal-to-noise ratio test indicated a notable transition towards higher levels of heavy rainfall in the TMR in 2006.(3)The Morlet wavelet analysis showed cyclic variations in heavy rainfall with period scales of 2~3 a in the study area.(4)The first two modes of the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)analysis illustrated coherent spatial patterns throughout the entire region in heavy rainfall distribution,including a southwest-northeast reverse pattern.Both patterns were influenced by atmospheric circulation and topography in the TMR.

关 键 词：太行山 暴雨 时空分布 正交函数(EOF)分析 小波分析 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]