CMIP6模式对中国北方季风区盛夏降水的模拟能力评估  

Evaluation of the Simulation Capability of CMIP6 Model for Summer Precipitation in the Northern Monsoon Region of China

作　　者：杨柳 赵俊虎[2] 毛明策 李永生[3] 刘刚[4] YANG Liu;ZHAO Junhu;MAO Mingce;LI Yongsheng;LIU Gang(Shaanxi Climate Center,Xi’an 710016;China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies,National Climate Center,Beijing 100081;Heilongjiang Climate Center,Harbin 150030;Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Jilin Province,Changchun 130062)

机构地区：[1]陕西省气候中心,西安710016 [2]中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]黑龙江省气候中心,哈尔滨150030 [4]吉林省气象科学研究所,长春130062

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第5期549-562,共14页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划2023YFC3007700;国家自然科学基金项目41875093、41975101;陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目2024JC-YBQN-0354;中国气象局创新发展专项CXFZ2023J002;黑龙江省自然科学基金项目LH2022D022。

摘　　要：基于站点降水观测资料和多种模式评估方法,评估了参加国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的30个全球模式对1961~2014年我国北方季风区盛夏(7~8月)降水气候态和主模态的模拟能力,结果表明:(1)大多数模式均能再现北方季风区盛夏气候态降水呈东南向西北递减的空间分布特征,对空间分布模拟能力最好的4个模式为MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR和E3SM-1-0。(2)综合衡量对气候态、第一模态及其年际变率模拟能力最好的4个模式为NESM3、E3SM-1-0、GFDL-ESM4和MPI-ESM1-2-LR。(3)综合衡量对气候态、第二模态及其年际变率模拟能力最好的5个模式为EC-Earth3-Veg、EC-Earth3、E3SM-1-0、NESM3和MPI-ESM1-2-HR。(4)多模式集合平均的模拟能力好于大部分模式。The 30 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)have been evaluated in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution and major modes of midsummer precipitation over the monsoon region in the northern part of China(NCMR)during 1961–2014.Based on evaluation indexes,such as spatial correlation coefficient,root-mean-square error,interannual variability score,and relative deviation,it is concluded that four models(MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MPI-ESM1-2-LR,and E3SM-1-0)can well capture the spatial distributions of midsummer precipitation over the NCMR.Models that can comprehensively evaluate the climatological spatial distribution,EOF1(EOF2),and its interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over the NCMR are NESM3,E3SM-1-0,GFDL-ESM4,and MMI-ESM1-2-LR(EC-Earth3-Veg,EC-Earth3,E3SM-1-0,NESM3,and MPI-ESM1-2-HR).The average simulation capability of a multimodel ensemble is better than that of most models.

关 键 词：北方季风区 盛夏降水 主模态 CMIP6 模式 模式评估 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]