基于PLUS—InVEST模型的滁州市土地利用与生境质量时空演变及预测  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Prediction of Land Use and Habitat Quality in Chuzhou City Based on PlUS-InVEST Model

作　　者：任超群 刘平辉[1] REN Chaoqun;LIU Pinghui(School of Earth Sciences,East China University of Technology,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330000,China)

机构地区：[1]东华理工大学地球科学学院,江西南昌330000

出　　处：《天津农业科学》2024年第8期39-47,共9页Tianjin Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：探究土地利用及生境质量变化,对促进区域土地资源可持续利用,维护生态安全具有重大意义。以滁州市为研究区,基于2000—2020年土地利用数据,利用PLUS模型、IM模型和InVEST模型分析土地利用及生境质量时空演变,并预测2030年滁州市不同情景下的土地利用和生境质量状况。结果表明:2000—2020年,滁州市建设用地持续扩张,耕地面积逐渐减少,土地利用强度变化倾向性特征明显;2030年滁州市生态保护情景下的林草地增长较明显,建设用地扩张速度减缓,其他3种情景下的生态用地呈减少趋势,城市蓝绿空间萎缩;2000—2020年,滁州市生境质量整体呈下降趋势,建设用地扩张引发琅琊区及周边生境质量显著下降;2030年滁州市4种情景下的生境质量水平由高到低排序为生态保护情景>耕地保护情景>自然发展情景>经济发展情景。综上,本研究可为滁州市生态格局优化及高质量发展提供科学参考。Exploring land use patterns and habitat quality under different scenarios is of great significance to promote the sustainable use of regional land resources and maintain ecological security.Based on the land use data of Chuzhou City from 2000 to 2020,the PLUS model,IM model and InVEST model were used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and habitat quality and to simulate the land use pattern and habitat quality of Chuzhou City under different scenarios in 2030.The results showed that from 2000 to 2020,the construction land of Chuzhou City continued to expand,the cultivated land area gradually decreased,and the change tendency of land use intensity was obvious.In 2030,under the ecological protection scenario of Chuzhou City,forest and grassland land increased significantly,and the expansion rate of construction land slowed down.In the other three scenarios,ecological land use decreased,and the urban blue-green spaces shrank.From 2000 to 2020,the overall habitat quality of Chuzhou City showed a downward trend,and the expansion of construction land led to a significant decline in habitat quality in Langya District and its surrounding areas.In 2030,the habitat quality of Chuzhou City was ranked from high to low in four scenariosecological protection scenario>cultivated land protection scenario>natural development scenario>economic development scenario.The results can provide scientific references for the optimization of ecological patterns and the high-quality development in Chuzhou City.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 生境质量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 滁州市 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X171.1