“十五五”粮食安全视域下中国粮食产需匹配度研究  

Research on the matching degree between grain production and demand in China from the perspective of food security during the“15th Five-Year Plan”period

作　　者：刘璐 周亚兰 孟婷 LIU Lu;ZHOU Yalan;MENG Ting(College of Economics,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]四川农业大学经济学院,四川成都611130

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2024年第5期545-557,共13页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CJY043)。

摘　　要：基于2015—2021年中国31个省份面板数据,以稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆为例,采用熵权TOPSIS法和耦合协调度模型对中国粮食产需匹配水平进行量化测度,并综合运用Dagum基尼系数、莫兰指数和灰色预测模型分析其时空格局和演化趋势。结果表明:中国粮食产需匹配水平总体较低,其中小麦产需匹配度最低、呈高度失配,稻谷和玉米为低度失配,大豆为中度失配;除玉米外,其余品种的产需匹配度均出现不同程度下降。从区域分布来看,相比较于主销区和产销平衡区,主产区的产需匹配水平明显更高。差异性分析表明,口粮比饲料粮的产需匹配度的空间差异明显更大,后者呈扩大趋势,而区域间差异是空间差异的主要来源。各省粮食产需匹配度呈空间正相关性,且该空间效应具有时变性以及区域、品种异质性。趋势预测显示,在“十五五”前中期,中国粮食产需匹配情况整体将有所改善,但个别省份和品种存在较大的下滑风险。据此,建议将产需匹配度纳入粮食安全评价体系进行分品种、分区域动态监测,因地制宜、因时制宜精准施策,促进粮食产需的区域平衡和结构平衡。Taking rice,wheat,corn,and soybeans as examples and based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2015 to 2021,this paper applies the entropy weight TOPSIS method and coupling coordination model to measure the matching degree between grain production and demand in China,and then comprehensively use the Dagum Gini coefficient,Moran’s I index and grey prediction model to explore its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics.The study finds that the matching level of China’s grain productiondemand is generally low.Wheat has the lowest matching degree and is in the highly mismatching state,rice and corn are in the low-level mismatching state,soybeans are in the moderate mismatching state.Except for corn,the production-demand matching degree of other varieties has declined to varying degrees.From the perspective of regional distribution,the production-demand matching degree in the main producing areas is significantly higher than that in the main consuming areas and the producing-consuming balanced areas.The difference analysis shows that the spatial difference in the production-demand matching degree of rations is significantly greater that of feed grains,with the latter showing an expanding trend.Interregional differences are the main source of spatial differences.There is a significant positive spatial correlation among provinces,and the spatial agglomeration effect is time-varying and shows obvious regional and variety differences.Trend prediction results show that in the early and middle phases of the“15th Five-Year Plan”period,the overall situation of grain production-demand matching degree in China will improve,but the matching degree of rice and wheat in producing-consuming balanced areas will decrease,with certain provinces showing significant risk of decline.Therefore,it is recommended to incorporate the production-demand matching degree into China's food security evaluation system,with dynamic monitoring for different varieties and regions,and to implement precise policies tailored to local conditio

关 键 词：“十五五” 粮食产需匹配度 品种差异 区域差异 时空演变 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]