基于不确定AHP和云模型的研考考务风险综合评价方法  

Comprehensive Risk Assessment Method for Graduate Examination Based on Uncertain AHP and Cloud Model

作　　者：王凯 吉丽[2] Wang Kai;Ji Li(Graduate Admissions Office,Gansu Provincial Education Examination Institute,Gansu Lanzhou 730010;University Admissions Office,Jiangsu Provincial Education Examination Institute,Nanjing Jiangsu 210024)

机构地区：[1]甘肃省教育考试院研究生招生处,甘肃兰州730010 [2]江苏省教育考试院高校招生处,江苏南京210024

出　　处：《河西学院学报》2024年第5期88-96,共9页Journal of Hexi University

基　　金：中国教育发展战略学会第二期(2022年度)教育考试专项立项(jyks2022011)。

摘　　要：鉴于研究考务风险因素的复杂性,在专家评分的基础上,将不确定性层次分析法与云模型理论相结合,也为了准确评估全国硕士研究生招生考试的考务风险,构建新型混合模型,用于描述研考考务风险的不确定性与模糊性。在分析研考考务风险来源的基础上,构建了风险指标体系;利用不确定性层次分析方法来计算指标-权重;基于云模型理论和最大相似度原则下完成风险等级的识别。通过实证分析验证本方法的合理性,为全面评估研考考务风险提供了一种新的思路。To accurately assess the examination risk of the National Master's Degree Admission Examination,this thesis proposes a novel hybrid model that combines the uncertainty hierarchical analysis method with cloud model theory,based on expert scoring.First,a system of examination service risk indicators was constructed.Subsequently,we employed uncertainty hierarchy analysis to calculate the weight assignments for these indicators.Finally,we established the risk threshold using the principles of cloud model theory and maximization of similarity.By analyzing examples,we verified the reasonableness of the proposed method.This approach provides a new perspective for comprehensively assessing and studying examination service risk.

关 键 词：考务风险评估 不确定性层次分析 云模型理论 风险等级确定 

分 类 号：F323.5[经济管理—产业经济]