乌克兰危机后全球油气“影子船队”的现状、影响及建议  

The current situation,impact and suggestions of the global maritime oil and gas"shadow fleet"after the Ukraine issue

作　　者：安雨康 闫勇[1] 陈嘉茹[1] 侯亮[1] 任浩宁 韩硕[1] AN Yukang;YAN Yong;CHEN Jiaru;HOU Liang;REN Haoning;HAN Shuo(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2024年第S01期8-15,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：乌克兰危机升级后,因西方制裁导致出现运输受制裁的石油或其他商品的“影子船队”现象。在广义概念里,“影子船队”包括已经遭受制裁或正在采取相关措施规避西方制裁影响的船只。西方国家对俄罗斯海运原油和成品油设置的价格上限政策,大大刺激了“影子船队”的发展,相应地,“影子船队”严重削弱了西方对俄的制裁效力,使价格上限政策名存实亡。当前,“影子船队”正从石油拓展到LNG等其他领域,将面临制裁和监管升级的长期压力,放大安全、环保等航运不可控风险。“影子船队”的成功经验不可复制,在实际运行中,俄罗斯与石油进口国围绕“影子船队”的运行也出现一些分歧。面对美西方在航运领域的涉华风险,航运保险正成为突出的“卡脖子”风险领域。对此,我国应增强海运保险承保能力,打造自主可控的“国险”服务体系。Following the escalation of the Ukraine issue,Western sanctions have led to the phenomenon of a"shadow fleet"of vessels transporting sanctioned oil or other commodities.In a broader sense,the"shadow fleet"includes vessels that have been sanctioned or are taking steps to circumvent the effects of Western sanctions.The price cap policy imposed by the West on Russia's maritime crude oil and refined oil products has greatly stimulated the development of the"shadow fleet",and accordingly,the"shadow fleet"has seriously weakened the effectiveness of Western sanctions against Russia,so that the price cap policy exists in name only.At present,the"shadow feet"is expanding from oil to other fields such as LNG,and will face longterm pressure from sanctions and regulatory upgrades,which will magnify the risks of safety,environmental protection and other uncontrollable risks in shipping.The successful experience of the"shadow fleet"cannot be copied,in practice,Russia and oil importing countries around the operation of the"shadow fleet"operation also appeared some differences.In the face of the United States and the West in the field of shipping risks related to China,shipping insurance is becoming a prominent dificult risk area.In this regard,China should enhance its marine insurance underwriting capacity and build an autonomous and controllable"national insurance"service system.

关 键 词：影子船队 乌克兰危机 航运保险 价格上限 合规 

分 类 号：F43[经济管理—产业经济] F47