Influence of waning immunity on vaccination decision-making:A multi-strain epidemic model with an evolutionary approach analyzing cost and efficacy  

作　　者：Md.Mamun-Ur-Rashid Khan Jun Tanimoto 

机构地区：[1]Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Engineering Sciences,Kyushu University,Kasuga-koen,Kasuga-shi,Fukuoka,816-8580,Japan [2]Faculty of Engineering Sciences,Kyushu University,Kasuga-koen,Kasuga-shi,Fukuoka,816-8580,Japan [3]Department of Mathematics,University of Dhaka,Dhaka,1000,Bangladesh

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第3期657-672,共16页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This study received financial support in the form of a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science(JSPS),specifically through KAKENHI(Grant No.JP 23H03499).

摘　　要：In this research,we introduce a comprehensive epidemiological model that accounts for multiple strains of an infectious disease and two distinct vaccination options.Vaccination stands out as the most effective means to prevent and manage infectious diseases.However,when there are various vaccines available,each with its costs and effectiveness,the decision-making process for individuals becomes paramount.Furthermore,the factor of waning immunity following vaccination also plays a significant role in influencing these choices.To understand how individuals make decisions in the context of multiple strains and waning immunity,we employ a behavioral model,allowing an epidemiological model to be coupled with the dynamics of a decision-making process.Individuals base their choice of vaccination on factors such as the total number of infected individuals and the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine.Our findings indicate that as waning immunity increases,people tend to prioritize vaccines with higher costs and greater efficacy.Moreover,when more contagious strains are present,the equilibrium in vaccine adoption is reached more rapidly.Finally,we delve into the social dilemma inherent in our model by quantifying the social efficiency deficit(SED)under various parameter combinations.

关 键 词：Multistrain epidemic model VACCINATION Behavior dynamics Waning immunity Social dilemma 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]