An effectiveness study of vaccination and quarantine combination strategies for containing mpox transmission on simulated college campuses  

作　　者：Qiangru Huang Yanxia Sun Mengmeng Jia Mingyue Jiang Yunshao Xu Luzhao Feng Weizhong Yang 

机构地区：[1]School of Population Medicine and Public Health,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College,Beijing,100730,China [2]National Institute of Pathogen Biology,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences&Peking Union Medical College,Beijing,100730,China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第3期805-815,共11页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：This study was supported by grants from the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(CAMS)Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences(2021-I2M-1–044).

摘　　要：The ongoing transmission of mpox in specific countries and regions necessitates urgent action.It is essential to implement targeted containment strategies that concentrate on high-risk populations and critical locations,such as college campuses,to effectively curb the spread of mpox.This study is dedicated to evaluating the performance of various vaccination and quarantine strategies in curbing the spread of mpox and estimating the outbreak risk.To accomplish this,we constructed a stochastic,agent-based,discrete-time susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered(SLIR)model,to examine mpox transmission on a simulated college campus.Our findings reveal that relying solely on PEP is insufficient in containing mpox effectively.To bolster the population immunity and protect the vulnerable,pre-exposure vaccination among high-risk populations prior to an outbreak is imperative.Our study demonstrates that a pre-exposure vaccination rate of 50%in high-risk populations can led to a remarkable 74.2%reduction of infections.This translated to a mere 1.0%cumulative infection incidence in the overall population.In cases where the desired vaccination coverage is not attainable,enhancing case detection and isolation measures can serve as an effective emergency response to contain mpox outbreaks.For pre-exposure vaccination coverage of 20%or lower,a 40%isolation ratio is necessary to keep the cumulative number of infections in check.However,when the coverage exceeds 30%,a reduced isolation ratio of 20%becomes sufficient to manage the outbreak effectively.These insights underscore the importance of strategic pre-exposure vaccination in conjunction with robust surveillance and isolation protocols to safeguard public health and prevent the escalation of mpox outbreaks.

关 键 词：Infectious diseases Mpox VACCINATION QUARANTINE 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]