Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2  

作　　者：Binod Pant Abba B.Gumel 

机构地区：[1]Department of Mathematics,University of Maryland,College Park,MD,20742,USA [2]Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics,University of Pretoria,Pretoria,0002,South Africa

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2024年第3期828-874,共47页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：ABG acknowledges the support,in part,of the National Science Foundation(Grant Number:DMS-2052363;transferred to DMS-2330801).

摘　　要：The COVID-19 pandemic,caused by SARS-CoV-2,disproportionately affected certain segments of society,particularly the elderly population(which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms of severity of the disease,hospitalization,and death).This study presents a generalized multigroup model,with m heterogeneous sub-populations,to assess the population-level impact of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the transmission dynamics and control of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United States.Rigorous analysis of the model for the homogeneous case(i.e.,the model with m=1)reveal that its disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable for two special cases(with perfect vaccine efficacy or negligible disease-induced mortality)whenever the associated reproduction number is less than one.The model has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium,for special a case,when the associated reproduction threshold exceeds one.The homogeneous model was fitted using the observed cumulative mortality data for the United States during three distinct waves(Waves A(October 17,2020 to April 5,2021),B(July 9,2021 to November 7,2021)and C(January 1,2022 to May 7,2022))chosen to align with time periods when the Alpha,Delta and Omicron were,respectively,the predominant variants in the United States.The calibrated model was used to derive a theoretical expression for achieving vaccine-derived herd immunity(needed to eliminate the disease in the United States).It was shown that,using the one-group homogeneous model,vaccine-derived herd immunity is not attainable during Wave C of the pandemic in the United States,regardless of the coverage level of the fully-vaccinated individuals.Global sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the parameters of the model that have the most influence on the disease dynamics and burden.These analyses reveal that control and mitigation strategies that may be very effective during one wave may not be so very effective during the other wave or waves.However,strate

关 键 词：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Heterogeneous model Reproduction number Herd immunity 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学]